Toledo vs Air Force 12/28/2011
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AccuScore is forecasting a close game with Toledo winning 48% of simulations, and Air Force 52% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. Toledo commits fewer turnovers in 45% of simulations and they go on to win 58% when they take care of the ball. Air Force wins 66% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Terrance Owens is averaging 253 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (41% chance) then he helps his team win 61%. Asher Clark is averaging 94 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (31% chance) then he helps his team win 63%. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is AF +3 --- Over/Under line is 69.5
'CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.
| Toledo | ATS RECORD | Air Force | ATS RECORD | ATS EDGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Games | 6-6-0 | All Games | 6-5-0 | Air Force |
| Road & Neutral Field | 4-3-0 | Road & Neutral Field | 5-1-0 | Air Force |
| When Favored | 4-4-0 | When Underdog | 3-2-0 | Air Force |
| Non-Conference Opp | 1-3-0 | Non-Conference Opp | 2-2-0 | Air Force |
| Opp .500+ Record | 3-5-0 | Opp .500+ Record | 3-3-0 | Air Force |
LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the 2010 Season.
| Toledo | ATS RECORD | Air Force | ATS RECORD | ATS EDGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Games | 7-6-0 | All Games | 5-7-0 | Toledo |
| Road & Neutral Field | 4-3-0 | Road & Neutral Field | 3-4-0 | Toledo |
| When Favored | 4-3-0 | When Underdog | 2-1-0 | Air Force |
| Non-Conference Opp | 1-4-0 | Non-Conference Opp | 5-1-0 | Air Force |
| Opp .500+ Record | 2-3-0 | Opp .500+ Record | 4-3-0 | Air Force |
OVER-UNDER TRENDS
| Toledo | O-U-P RECORD | Air Force | O-U-P RECORD | O-U EDGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Totals (O-U-P) | 7-5-0 | All Totals (O-U-P) | 7-4-0 | OVER |
| On Road & Neutral Field | 3-4-0 | On Road & Neutral Field | 4-2-0 | OVER |
| All Totals 2010 | 8-5-0 | All Totals 2010 | 3-9-0 | UNDER |
| On Road & Neutral Field '10 | 5-2-0 | On Road & Neutral Field '10 | 1-6-0 | UNDER |
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