Arkansas State vs Northern Illinois 1/8/2012
| AccuScore.com Game Forecast Preview |
AccuScore is forecasting a close game with Arkansas State winning 47% of simulations, and Northern Illinois 53% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. Arkansas State commits fewer turnovers in 33% of simulations and they go on to win 62% when they take care of the ball. Northern Illinois wins 63% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Ryan Aplin is averaging 262 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (36% chance) then he helps his team win 67%. Chandler Harnish is averaging 74 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (30% chance) then he helps his team win 64%. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is NOILL +1.5 --- Over/Under line is 63
'CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.
| Arkansas State | ATS RECORD | Northern Illinois | ATS RECORD | ATS EDGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Games | 9-2-0 | All Games | 5-6-1 | Arkansas State |
| Road & Neutral Field | 5-1-0 | Road & Neutral Field | 2-4-1 | Arkansas State |
| When Favored | 7-2-0 | When Underdog | 2-1-0 | Arkansas State |
| Non-Conference Opp | 3-0-0 | Non-Conference Opp | 1-2-0 | Arkansas State |
| Opp .500+ Record | 2-1-0 | Opp .500+ Record | 2-3-1 | Arkansas State |
LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the 2010 Season.
| Arkansas State | ATS RECORD | Northern Illinois | ATS RECORD | ATS EDGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Games | 7-5-0 | All Games | 11-2-0 | Northern Illinois |
| Road & Neutral Field | 4-3-0 | Road & Neutral Field | 7-1-0 | Northern Illinois |
| When Favored | 3-1-0 | When Underdog | 2-1-0 | Arkansas State |
| Non-Conference Opp | 2-2-0 | Non-Conference Opp | 3-1-0 | Northern Illinois |
| Opp .500+ Record | 1-2-0 | Opp Under .500 | 7-0-0 | Northern Illinois |
OVER-UNDER TRENDS
| Arkansas State | O-U-P RECORD | Northern Illinois | O-U-P RECORD | O-U EDGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Totals (O-U-P) | 3-8-0 | All Totals (O-U-P) | 6-6-0 | UNDER |
| On Road | 2-4-0 | At Home | 3-2-0 | UNDER |
| All Totals 2010 | 6-6-0 | All Totals 2010 | 7-6-0 | OVER |
| On Road 2010 | 3-4-0 | At Home 2010 | 2-3-0 | UNDER |
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