January 03, 2014 2:40 AM UTC

Utah State vs Northern Illinois 12/26/2013

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AccuScore is forecasting a close game with Utah State winning 44% of simulations, and Northern Illinois 56% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. Utah State commits fewer turnovers in 28% of simulations and they go on to win 54% when they take care of the ball. Northern Illinois wins 65% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Joey DeMartino is averaging 93 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (33% chance) then he helps his team win 57%. Jordan Lynch is averaging 102 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (36% chance) then he helps his team win 69%. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is NOILL +1 --- Over/Under line is 58

'CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.

Utah StateATS RECORDNorthern IllinoisATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games8-5-0All Games8-5-0Northern Illinois
Road & Neutral Field5-2-0Road & Neutral Field6-3-0Utah State
When Favored7-3-0When Underdog1-1-0Utah State
Non-Conference Opp2-2-0Non-Conference Opp2-2-0Northern Illinois
Opp .500+ Record3-4-0Opp .500+ Record2-1-0Northern Illinois

LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the Current Season.

Utah StateATS RECORDNorthern IllinoisATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games10-1-1All Games8-5-0Utah State
Road & Neutral Field6-0-1Road & Neutral Field4-3-0Utah State
When Favored6-1-1When Underdog1-1-0Utah State
Non-Conference Opp8-1-0Non-Conference Opp1-3-0Utah State
Opp .500+ Record6-0-1Opp .500+ Record2-3-0Utah State

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

Utah StateO-U-P RECORDNorthern IllinoisO-U-P RECORDO-U EDGE
All Totals (O-U-P)5-8-0All Totals (O-U-P)7-6-0UNDER
On Road2-5-0At Home2-2-0UNDER
All Totals Last Season3-9-0All Totals Last Season5-8-0UNDER
On Road Last Season3-4-0At Home Last Season2-4-0UNDER

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