October 12, 2012 2:26 PM UTC

New Mexico vs Hawaii 10/13/2012

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AccuScore is forecasting a close game with New Mexico winning 49% of simulations, and Hawaii 51% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. New Mexico commits fewer turnovers in 74% of simulations and they go on to win 56% when they take care of the ball. Hawaii wins 72% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Kasey Carrier is averaging 61 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (37% chance) then he helps his team win 63%. Will Gregory is averaging 48 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (24% chance) then he helps his team win 64%. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is HAW +4 --- Over/Under line is 53.5

'CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.

New MexicoATS RECORDHawaiiATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games3-2-0All Games1-3-0New Mexico
Road & Neutral Field1-2-0Home Games0-1-0New Mexico
When Favored1-0-0When Underdog1-3-0New Mexico
Conference Opp1-0-0Conference Opp0-2-0New Mexico
Opp Under .5002-0-0Opp Under .5000-2-0New Mexico

LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the 2010 Season.

New MexicoATS RECORDHawaiiATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games5-6-0All Games3-9-0New Mexico
Road & Neutral Field3-3-0Home Games1-5-0New Mexico
When Favored0-1-0When Underdog2-2-0Hawaii
Conference Opp5-2-0Conference Opp1-2-0New Mexico
Opp Under .5001-3-0Opp Under .5001-6-0New Mexico

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

New MexicoO-U-P RECORDHawaiiO-U-P RECORDO-U EDGE
All Totals (O-U-P)2-3-0All Totals (O-U-P)2-2-0UNDER
On Road1-2-0At Home1-0-0No Edge
All Totals 20104-7-0All Totals 20108-4-0OVER
On Road 20102-4-0At Home 20104-2-0No Edge

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