Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills 11/15/2012
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Expect a close game with the Miami Dolphins winning 47% of simulations, and the Buffalo Bills 53% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. The Miami Dolphins commit fewer turnovers in 46% of simulations and they go on to win 72% when they take care of the ball. The Buffalo Bills wins 75% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Reggie Bush is averaging 62 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (24% chance) then he helps his team win 71%. C.J. Spiller is averaging 73 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (29% chance) then he helps his team win 75%.
'CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.
| Miami Dolphins | ATS RECORD | Buffalo Bills | ATS RECORD | ATS EDGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Games | 4-6-0 | All Games | 5-5-0 | Buffalo Bills |
| Road Games | 3-3-0 | Home Games | 2-2-0 | No Edge |
| When Underdog | 4-3-0 | When Favored | 3-1-0 | Buffalo Bills |
| Division Opp | 1-2-0 | Division Opp | 2-2-0 | Buffalo Bills |
| Opp Under .500 | 2-2-0 | Opp Under .500 | 3-2-0 | Buffalo Bills |
LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the Current Season.
| Miami Dolphins | ATS RECORD | Buffalo Bills | ATS RECORD | ATS EDGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Games | 9-7-0 | All Games | 6-9-1 | Miami Dolphins |
| Road Games | 6-2-0 | Home Games | 4-4-1 | Miami Dolphins |
| When Underdog | 5-5-0 | When Favored | 2-4-0 | Miami Dolphins |
| Division Opp | 3-3-0 | Division Opp | 2-4-0 | Miami Dolphins |
| Opp Under .500 | 2-3-0 | Opp Under .500 | 1-4-0 | Miami Dolphins |
OVER-UNDER TRENDS
| Miami Dolphins | O-U-P RECORD | Buffalo Bills | O-U-P RECORD | O-U EDGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Totals (O-U-P) | 4-6-0 | All Totals (O-U-P) | 6-4-0 | OVER |
| On Road | 2-4-0 | At Home | 3-1-0 | OVER |
| All Totals Last Season | 4-11-1 | All Totals Last Season | 10-5-1 | UNDER |
| On Road Last Season | 2-6-0 | At Home Last Season | 5-3-0 | UNDER |
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