October 25, 2012 3:10 PM CDT

New York Jets vs New England Patriots 10/21/2012

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The New England Patriots are a heavy favorite winning 79% of simulations over the New York Jets. Tom Brady is averaging 258 passing yards and 1.7 TDs per simulation and Stevan Ridley is projected for 73 rushing yards and a 38% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 21% of simulations where New York Jets wins, Mark Sanchez averages 1.38 TD passes vs 0.7 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 0.96 TDs to 1.26 interceptions. Shonn Greene averages 76 rushing yards and 0.49 rushing TDs when New York Jets wins and 50 yards and 0.19 TDs in losses. New England Patriots has a 54% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 91% of the time.

'CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.

All Games5-2-0All Games4-3-0New York Jets
Road Games2-1-0Home Games1-2-0New York Jets
When Underdog2-2-0When Favored3-3-0New England Patriots
Division Opp3-0-0Division Opp1-1-0New York Jets
Opp .500+ Record4-1-0Opp Under .5000-0-0New York Jets

LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the Current Season.

All Games7-9-0All Games9-7-0New England Patriots
Road Games3-5-0Home Games4-4-0New England Patriots
When Underdog2-3-0When Favored8-7-0New England Patriots
Division Opp3-3-0Division Opp4-2-0New England Patriots
Opp .500+ Record3-5-0Opp .500+ Record5-4-0New England Patriots


New York JetsO-U-P RECORDNew England PatriotsO-U-P RECORDO-U EDGE
All Totals (O-U-P)3-2-2All Totals (O-U-P)5-2-0OVER
On Road2-1-0At Home2-1-0OVER
All Totals Last Season10-6-0All Totals Last Season11-5-0OVER
On Road Last Season5-3-0At Home Last Season5-3-0OVER

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