October 07, 2012 8:25 PM CDT

Virginia Tech vs North Carolina 10/6/2012

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North Carolina is a solid favorite with a 65% chance to beat Virginia Tech. Giovani Bernard is projected for 60 rushing yards and a 48% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 35% of simulations where Virginia Tech wins, Logan Thomas averages 1.51 TD passes vs 0.87 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 0.78 TDs to 1.16 interceptions. Michael Holmes averages 47 rushing yards and 0.52 rushing TDs when Virginia Tech wins and 41 yards and 0.29 TDs in losses. North Carolina has a 39% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 74% of the time. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is UNC -3.5 --- Over/Under line is 49.5

'CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.

All Games1-4-0All Games3-2-0North Carolina
Road & Neutral Field0-3-0Home Games3-0-0North Carolina
When Underdog0-1-0When Favored3-1-0North Carolina
Conference Opp0-2-0Conference Opp1-1-0North Carolina
Opp .500+ Record0-2-0Opp Under .5001-0-0North Carolina

LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the 2010 Season.

All Games3-9-1All Games5-7-0North Carolina
Road & Neutral Field3-4-1Home Games3-3-0North Carolina
When Underdog0-0-1When Favored4-4-0No Edge
Conference Opp3-6-0Conference Opp4-4-0North Carolina
Opp .500+ Record3-5-1Opp .500+ Record3-4-0North Carolina


Virginia TechO-U-P RECORDNorth CarolinaO-U-P RECORDO-U EDGE
All Totals (O-U-P)3-2-0All Totals (O-U-P)3-2-0OVER
On Road3-0-0At Home2-1-0OVER
All Totals 20104-9-0All Totals 20106-6-0UNDER
On Road 20102-6-0At Home 20103-3-0UNDER

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