October 25, 2012 6:20 PM CDT

Mississippi State vs Alabama 10/27/2012

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Alabama is a heavy favorite winning 96% of simulations over Mississippi State. AJ McCarron is averaging 254 passing yards and 2 TDs per simulation and T.J. Yeldon is projected for 89 rushing yards and a 58% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 4% of simulations where Mississippi State wins, Tyler Russell averages 1.05 TD passes vs 0.5 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 0.46 TDs to 0.81 interceptions. LaDarius Perkins averages 79 rushing yards and 0.63 rushing TDs when Mississippi State wins and 68 yards and 0.31 TDs in losses. Alabama has a 39% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 99% of the time. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is ALA -24 --- Over/Under line is 47.5

'CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.

All Games4-2-0All Games4-3-0Mississippi State
Road & Neutral Field1-1-0Home Games0-3-0Mississippi State
When Underdog0-0-0When Favored4-3-0No Edge
Conference Opp3-0-0Conference Opp3-1-0Mississippi State
Opp .500+ Record2-1-0Opp .500+ Record0-2-0Mississippi State

LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the 2010 Season.

All Games4-7-1All Games9-2-1Alabama
Road & Neutral Field2-5-0Home Games4-2-1Alabama
When Underdog1-3-1When Favored9-2-1Alabama
Conference Opp3-4-1Conference Opp7-1-1Alabama
Opp .500+ Record1-3-1Opp .500+ Record6-1-1Alabama


Mississippi StateO-U-P RECORDAlabamaO-U-P RECORDO-U EDGE
All Totals (O-U-P)1-5-0All Totals (O-U-P)3-4-0UNDER
On Road0-2-0At Home0-3-0UNDER
All Totals 20104-8-0All Totals 20105-7-0UNDER
On Road 20104-3-0At Home 20102-4-0UNDER

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