January 03, 2014 2:40 AM CST

UCF vs Baylor 1/1/2014

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Baylor is a solid favorite with a 73% chance to beat UCF. Lache Seastrunk is projected for 105 rushing yards and a 65% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 27% of simulations where UCF wins, Blake Bortles averages 2.5 TD passes vs 0.59 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 1.37 TDs to 0.87 interceptions. Storm Johnson averages 99 rushing yards and 1.13 rushing TDs when UCF wins and 89 yards and 0.67 TDs in losses. Baylor has a 38% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 83% of the time. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is BAY -16.5 --- Over/Under line is 69.5

'CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.

All Games8-5-0All Games8-4-0Baylor
Road & Neutral Field4-3-0Road & Neutral Field1-4-0UCF
When Underdog4-0-0When Favored8-4-0UCF
Non-Conference Opp5-0-0Non-Conference Opp2-1-0UCF
Opp .500+ Record4-1-0Opp .500+ Record6-2-0UCF

LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the Current Season.

All Games7-7-0All Games9-3-0Baylor
Road & Neutral Field4-4-0Road & Neutral Field5-2-0Baylor
When Underdog1-2-0When Favored3-2-0Baylor
Non-Conference Opp6-6-0Non-Conference Opp2-1-0Baylor
Opp .500+ Record3-3-0Opp .500+ Record7-3-0Baylor


All Totals (O-U-P)6-6-1All Totals (O-U-P)8-4-0OVER
On Road4-3-0At Home5-2-0OVER
All Totals Last Season10-4-0All Totals Last Season8-4-0OVER
On Road Last Season5-3-0At Home Last Season3-2-0OVER

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