Written by Rohit Ghosh
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NFL Week 1 Analyst Pick: Jaguars vs Texans
Despite the craziness of Hurricane Harvey, this Sunday's matchup between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans is still scheduled to be played. The Texans head into their Week 1 matchup as 5.5-point favorites with the total set at 39.5.
Vegas Odds vs AccuScore Sim Data
The Texans opened as 4.5-point favorites, moving to 5.5 on Friday. AccuScore simulations, however, have the line at just 3, indicating a pick on the Jags to cover.
The Jaguars cover a 5.5-point spread in about 61 percent of simulations, a four-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend. Most books in Vegas are offering Jacksonville +5.5 at -110, indicating about a 52 percent chance of happening.
The Jags are getting +210 on the money line, indicating about a 32 percent chance of happening. Jacksonville wins 46 percent of sims. AccuScore data would have listed their money line odds at about +115 to +120, offering a whole lot of value on the +210.
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What to Watch For
Blake Bortles is projected to start for the Jags and that's actually a fairly important variable in projecting a more competitive matchup than do Vegas odds. He struggled overall with turnovers last season, but had an above-average performance against Houston. In two matchups, he fnished with 357 total yards and 2 TDs and 2 INTs.
Bortles is projected to to finish with 199 passing yards, 1 TD, 1 INT and a passer rating of 95.2.
Key Betting Trend
The Jaguars are 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last five road games vs the Texans.
The Jaguars are 1-9 straight up (SU) in their last 10 road games. They're also 5-5 ATS in those same games. We'll take the Jags to cover late.