Vikings vs Bears: NFL Week 11 Expert Picks

Chargers vs Broncos: Analyst Preview & Expert Pick

We're always interested when AccuScore sims and bookmaker odds are on different sides of the money line, and that's exactly what we've got in this weekend's matchup between the Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears. Entering this week 11 contest, the Bears surprisingly haven't won a game yet this season against a team with a winning record.

Let's take a closer look at where's the value at in this game.

Vegas Odds

Spread
Chicago Bears -2.5

Total
44.5

Top NFL Trends:
• All Spread & Totals Picks Last 2 seasons: +7070
• 2018 Spread Picks (After Week 10): 83-57-8, 59.3% +2030
• 2018 Totals Picks (After Week 10): 82-58-8, 58.6% +1820
2018 Spread and Totals Picks (Every game): +3850
All NFL Week 11 Expert Picks

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What to Watch For

Movement: The Bears opened up as 2.5-point favorites and there has been no movement on the spread so far this week. The total has also stayed put at 44.5.

Quality of Competition: The Bears will be looking for their fourth-straight win this weekend, but the recent string of opponents haven't been anything to write home about. They have defeated the Jets, Bills and Lions -- three teams that have a combined 9-20 record.

Playing with Momentum: Minnesota is 4-1 since the beginning of October, with the only loss coming against a strong New Orleans Saints team. Two of those wins came on the road -- one as a favorite, one as a 'dog.

Bye Week: Will this weekend's matchup be dictated by rust or rest? Vikings will have fresh legs after a bye week, but the Bears have on-field momentum to build from. Minnesota has won six of their last seven overall vs Chicago.

Struggling on the Ground: Keep an eye on Chicago's production on the ground. Chicago has rushed for a disappointing 59 yards per game on 2.5 yards per carry in the last two games.

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Free Analyst's Pick: Vikings vs Bears

Vikings to win.

Oddsmakers have the Bears as the slight favorites, but it's the Vikings that win the majority of AccuScore sims -- suggesting some added side value on the underdog. Odds give the Vikings close to a 45 percent chance to win, but they win 53 percent of AccuScore sims.

Minnesota covering the 2.5-point spread is a four-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend pick.