2018 NFC Championship: Eagles vs Vikings - Analyst Pick

Written by Rohit Ghosh
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NFC Championship: Eagles vs Vikings – Analyst Preview & Pick

We've got a pair of 11-6 against the spread (ATS) teams going at it this Sunday as the Philadelphia Eagles host Minnesota Vikings in a matchup that decides who represents the NFC in the Super Bowl.

Let's take a closer look at the matchup and where the value is.

Vegas Odds
The Vikings opened as 3.5-point favorites before settling in at -3 in most books. The total saw a similar lack of movement since opening at 38.5.

Betting Line: Minnesota Vikings -3
Total: 38.5/39

At the time of publication, 53 percent of the public was laying the points and taking the Vikings.

54 percent of the action on the total has been on the OVER.

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What to Watch For

Passing Yards: The Vikings have the 11th most passing yards per game (238.88). The Eagles are No. 13 in the league (233.82). What's interesting though is that Philly has the 23rd-most home passing yards per game.

QB Nick Foles is projected to finish this matchup with 215 passing yards and 1 TD.

Weapons: The Vikings are No. 3 in passing yards allowed, while the Eagles are No. 17. The Eagles are No. 1 in fewest rushing yards allowed, while the Vikings are No. 2 in the same category. Don't expect either side to have much production on the ground. All that makes sense when you see the Eagles and Vikings are one-and-two in total defensive time on field.

The Eagles' defense is projected to finish with 1-plus takeaway, with there being just a slightly higher probability at a pick as opposed to a recovered fumble. The Vikings' defense is projected to force fewer than one turnover; if it does happen, there's a slightly higher probability for an INT.

Analyst's Pick
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Analyst Pick: The OVER.

The total has gone OVER in four of Minnesota's last six games on the road. The score goes over 38.5 in about 53 percent of simulated matchups.