September 16, 2018 3:54 AM CDT

New England Patriots vs Jacksonville Jaguars 9/16/2018

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Expect a close game with the New England Patriots winning 52% of simulations, and the Jacksonville Jaguars 48% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. The New England Patriots commit fewer turnovers in 44% of simulations and they go on to win 74% when they take care of the ball. The Jacksonville Jaguars wins 67% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Tom Brady is averaging 281 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (43% chance) then he helps his team win 55%. T.J. Yeldon is averaging 76 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (32% chance) then he helps his team win 67%.

'CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.

New England PatriotsATS RECORDJacksonville JaguarsATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games1-0-0All Games1-0-0No Edge
Road Games0-0-0Home Games0-0-0No Edge
When Favored1-0-0When Underdog0-0-0No Edge
Non-Division Opp1-0-0Non-Division Opp1-0-0No Edge
Opp .500+ Record0-0-0Opp .500+ Record0-0-0No Edge

LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the Current Season.

New England PatriotsATS RECORDJacksonville JaguarsATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games11-7-1All Games11-8-0New England Patriots
Road Games5-2-1Home Games5-4-0New England Patriots
When Favored11-7-1When Underdog5-1-0Jacksonville Jaguars
Non-Division Opp7-5-1Non-Division Opp7-6-0New England Patriots
Opp .500+ Record3-3-1Opp .500+ Record3-1-0Jacksonville Jaguars

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

New England PatriotsO-U-P RECORDJacksonville JaguarsO-U-P RECORDO-U EDGE
All Totals (O-U-P)0-1-0All Totals (O-U-P)0-1-0UNDER
On Road0-0-0At Home0-0-0No Edge
All Totals Last Season9-9-1All Totals Last Season9-10-0UNDER
On Road Last Season2-5-1At Home Last Season5-4-0UNDER

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