December 16, 2018 7:04 AM CST

New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers 12/16/2018

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Expect a close game with the New England Patriots winning 57% of simulations, and the Pittsburgh Steelers 43% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. The New England Patriots commit fewer turnovers in 41% of simulations and they go on to win 81% when they take care of the ball. The Pittsburgh Steelers wins 62% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Tom Brady is averaging 319 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (43% chance) then he helps his team win 58%. Ben Roethlisberger is averaging 301 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (39% chance) then he helps his team win 45%.

'CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.

New England PatriotsATS RECORDPittsburgh SteelersATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games8-5-0All Games6-5-1New England Patriots
Road Games3-4-0Home Games3-3-1Pittsburgh Steelers
When Favored8-5-0When Underdog2-0-0Pittsburgh Steelers
Non-Division Opp5-4-0Non-Division Opp3-4-1New England Patriots
Opp .500+ Record4-4-0Opp .500+ Record4-3-0Pittsburgh Steelers

LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the Current Season.

New England PatriotsATS RECORDPittsburgh SteelersATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games11-7-1All Games7-10-0New England Patriots
Road Games5-2-1Home Games3-6-0New England Patriots
When Favored11-7-1When Underdog1-1-0New England Patriots
Non-Division Opp7-5-1Non-Division Opp5-6-0New England Patriots
Opp .500+ Record3-3-1Opp .500+ Record5-4-0Pittsburgh Steelers

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

New England PatriotsO-U-P RECORDPittsburgh SteelersO-U-P RECORDO-U EDGE
All Totals (O-U-P)5-8-0All Totals (O-U-P)5-7-0UNDER
On Road3-4-0At Home4-2-0OVER
All Totals Last Season9-9-1All Totals Last Season6-11-0UNDER
On Road Last Season2-5-1At Home Last Season6-3-0No Edge

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