November 11, 2018 8:15 AM CST

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts 11/11/2018

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Expect a close game with the Jacksonville Jaguars winning 48% of simulations, and the Indianapolis Colts 52% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. The Jacksonville Jaguars commit fewer turnovers in 45% of simulations and they go on to win 72% when they take care of the ball. The Indianapolis Colts wins 73% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Leonard Fournette is averaging 86 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (36% chance) then he helps his team win 69%. Marlon Mack is averaging 45 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (26% chance) then he helps his team win 69%.

'CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.

Jacksonville JaguarsATS RECORDIndianapolis ColtsATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games3-5-0All Games4-4-0Indianapolis Colts
Road Games1-2-0Home Games1-2-0No Edge
When Underdog1-2-0When Favored2-1-0Indianapolis Colts
Division Opp0-2-0Division Opp0-1-0No Edge
Opp Under .5001-2-0Opp Under .5002-2-0Indianapolis Colts

LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the Current Season.

Jacksonville JaguarsATS RECORDIndianapolis ColtsATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games11-8-0All Games8-8-0Jacksonville Jaguars
Road Games6-4-0Home Games5-3-0Indianapolis Colts
When Underdog5-1-0When Favored2-0-0Indianapolis Colts
Division Opp4-2-0Division Opp2-4-0Jacksonville Jaguars
Opp Under .5005-4-0Opp .500+ Record1-4-0Jacksonville Jaguars

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

Jacksonville JaguarsO-U-P RECORDIndianapolis ColtsO-U-P RECORDO-U EDGE
All Totals (O-U-P)3-5-0All Totals (O-U-P)5-3-0No Edge
On Road1-2-0At Home2-1-0No Edge
All Totals Last Season9-10-0All Totals Last Season6-10-0UNDER
On Road Last Season4-6-0At Home Last Season2-6-0UNDER

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