October 14, 2018 11:04 AM CDT

Chicago Bears vs Miami Dolphins 10/14/2018

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Expect a close game with the Chicago Bears winning 56% of simulations, and the Miami Dolphins 44% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. The Chicago Bears commit fewer turnovers in 52% of simulations and they go on to win 75% when they take care of the ball. The Miami Dolphins wins 68% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Jordan Howard is averaging 81 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (31% chance) then he helps his team win 76%. Frank Gore is averaging 65 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (27% chance) then he helps his team win 68%.

'CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.

Chicago BearsATS RECORDMiami DolphinsATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games3-1-0All Games3-2-0Chicago Bears
Road Games1-1-0Home Games2-0-0Miami Dolphins
When Favored2-1-0When Underdog1-2-0Chicago Bears
Non-Division Opp2-1-0Non-Division Opp2-1-0No Edge
Opp .500+ Record1-0-0Opp .500+ Record1-1-0Chicago Bears

LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the Current Season.

Chicago BearsATS RECORDMiami DolphinsATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games7-6-3All Games5-9-2Chicago Bears
Road Games2-4-2Home Games3-3-0Miami Dolphins
When Favored1-2-0When Underdog5-8-1Miami Dolphins
Non-Division Opp6-3-1Non-Division Opp4-5-1Chicago Bears
Opp Under .5001-1-0Opp Under .5002-4-1Chicago Bears

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

Chicago BearsO-U-P RECORDMiami DolphinsO-U-P RECORDO-U EDGE
All Totals (O-U-P)1-2-1All Totals (O-U-P)2-3-0UNDER
On Road0-1-1At Home2-0-0OVER
All Totals Last Season4-12-0All Totals Last Season7-7-2UNDER
On Road Last Season2-6-0At Home Last Season4-3-1UNDER

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