Written by Rohit Ghosh
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College Football: Week 3 Analyst Picks
The line opened with South Florida as 14.5-point favorites, moving a good few points up over the week. Compared to the opening line, AccuScore data had the home team as even heavier favorites, listing the Bulls as 18-point favorites to open. The line in Vegas has since moved closer to AccuScore data.
South Florida covers a 17.5-point spread in just 51.3 percent of simulations; they covered the 14.5-point spread in close to 56 percent of simulations.
Simply put, there's not a whole lot of value in laying the points for the home side to cover.
Top NCAA AccuScore Trends: Week 3
• Sim O/U difference vs Vegas: 3-3.5
- All Picks(Spreads + Totals): 35-16-1, 68% +1,740
-Moneyline Picks: 23-3, 88%
• All Close Games (-4 to +4 spread)
- All Picks (Spreads + Totals): 24-15, 61% +750
Top AccuScore Trends: Spread Picks
• SEC Team vs Non-SEC Team: 11-5, 69% +550
• Pac-12 Team vs Non-Pac12 Team: 11-5, 69% +550
Top AccuScore Trends: Over/Under Picks
• MWC Team vs Non-MWC Team: 13-3, 81% +970
Top AccuScore Trends: Moneyline Picks
• AAC Team vs Non-AAC Team: 10-1, 91%
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Top South Florida vs Illinois: Betting Trends
• Illinois is 1-4 against the spread (ATS) in its last five games.
• Illinois is 6-15 straight up (SU) in its last 21 games.
• Illinois is 8-17 ATS in its last 25 games on the road.
• Illinois is 4-21 SU in its last 25 games on the road.
• South Florida is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games.
• South Florida is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games.
• The total has gone OVER in 11 of South Florida's last 16 games
At the time of publication, close to 70 percent of the public was on the road team to cover a 17.5-point spread. It might be a good idea to keep monitoring how much of the public is on Illinois.
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Revealed After Game
South Florida is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games at home. We'll focus on that when picking this matchup.
The two sides have opposite styles of play, one focusing on offense and the other on defense, but South Florida just is better prepared for this matchup. They've already faced some varied styles this season and have more talent to adapt over the course of a game. It's not an easy play, but we'll lay the points and take the home side.