2017 Alamo Bowl Analyst Pick: Stanford vs TCU

Written by Rohit Ghosh
Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

Valero Alama Bowl: Stanford vs TCU

College football bowl season is upon us and that means good, competitive matchups on the slate for the next week or so. Let's take a closer look at this year's Valero Alamo Bowl featuring No. 13 Stanford vs No. 15 TCU. All eyes will be on Stanford RB Bryce Love and how productive his legs will be after a four-week break.

Vegas Odds
TCU opened as a 2.5-point favorite before settling in a half-point higher in most books. The total moved up a bit since opening at 47.5.

Betting Line: TCU -3
Total: 49

At the time of publication, 51 percent of the public were laying the points and picking TCU.

65 percent of the action on the total has been on the OVER.

All of AccuScore's College Football picks
Our computer has simulated every Bowl game 10,000 times based on trends, team and player statistics: College Football Bowl Picks

Betting Trend(s)
• TCU is 11-2 straight up (SU) in its last 13 games after a loss.

What to Watch For
Bryce Love's Production: Stanford ranked top-40 in the nation in both offensive and defensive scoring averages, but it was their offense led by Heisman-finalist RB Bryce Love that garnered much of the discussion. He carried the ball 237 times for nearly 1,973 yards this season and 17 TDs; this week's matchup will be largely determined by his production against a TCU defense that's just outside the top-10 nationwide in points allowed per game (17.6).

Love is projected to finish with 130 yards on 19 carries, averaging 1 TD per simulated matchup.

Betting on the Spread: TCU went 6-7 against the spread (ATS) and Stanford went 6-6-1. TCU was 5-5 as a favorite while Stanford was 3-1 as an underdog. Ultimately, as stated above, this game comes down to how successfully TCU is able to contain Stanford's ground game. For example, Washington St. was able to hold Love to just 69 yards and 1 TD on 16 carries; USC even got the hat-tip when they contained him to 125 yards and 1 TD on 22 carries. If TCU can be in some sort of a similar ballpark to those numbers, data suggests TCU takes the matchup.

TCU's defense averages just 0.6 takeaways per sim, indicating the Cardinal more than likely will have fewer than 1 turnover.

Analyst's Pick
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