Written by Rohit Ghosh
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College Football National Championship: Alabama vs Georgia
We've got an SEC showdown in the College Football National Championship Game as Alabama and Georgia get set to kick off Monday night at in Atlanta, Georgia. The two sides come in with similar regular season records, but very different against the spread (ATS) records as 'Bama went just 6-7 ATS while Georgia finished 10-4.
Let's take a closer look at this matchup.
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Alabama opened as 4.5-point favorites before settling in about a point lower in most books. The total saw a bit more movement, dropping 2 points since opening at 47.
Betting Line: Alabama -3.5
At the time of publication, 53 percent of the public were laying the points and picking Alabama.
About 53 percent of the public action has been on the OVER.
All of AccuScore's College Football National Championship picks
Our computer has simulated Alabama vs Georgia 10,000 times based on trends, team and player statistics: College Football National Championship Picks
• Georgia is 5-12 straight up (SU) in its last 17 games as an underdog
• Georgia is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Alabama
• Georgia is 4-0 ATS in its last four bowl games
Which 'Bama Defense Shows Up?: Alabama has given up at least 150 yards rushing in three of its last five games. At the same time, we're still talking about one of the best rush defenses in the country. They head into the matchup allowing no more than 3.6 rushing yards per game.
Both Georgia RBs Nick Chubb and Sony Michel are projected to have some big games on the ground, with Chubb averaging 90 yards on 16 carries and Michel with 70 on 12. Both average 0.4 TDs per sim, which indicates -- at least in our sims -- red zone issues for Georgia.
QB Play: Alabama's Jalen Hurts heads into the final game of the season having thrown just one INT. He's reliable and can manage the game remarkably well. On the other side, we've got Jake Fromm, who's top-five in the nation in pass efficiency. Georgia is undefeated this season when he has more than 15 completions.
Hurts is projected to finish with 152 passing yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. Fromm is projected to finish with 187 passing yards -- averaging 14 completions per sim.
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Analyst Pick:: 'Bama covers.
Alabama is 24-1 SU in its last 25 games vs SEC opponents.