November 09, 2018 1:33 PM CST

Wisconsin vs Penn State 11/10/2018

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AccuScore is forecasting a close game with Wisconsin winning 40% of simulations, and Penn State 60% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. Wisconsin commits fewer turnovers in 24% of simulations and they go on to win 58% when they take care of the ball. Penn State wins 73% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Jonathan Taylor is averaging 147 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (37% chance) then he helps his team win 55%. Miles Sanders is averaging 70 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (29% chance) then he helps his team win 70%. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is PAST -8 --- Over/Under line is 54

'CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.

WisconsinATS RECORDPenn StateATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games2-7-0All Games4-5-0Penn State
Road & Neutral Field1-2-0Home Games2-3-0Penn State
When Underdog0-1-0When Favored3-4-0Penn State
Conference Opp2-4-0Conference Opp2-4-0No Edge
Opp .500+ Record1-4-0Opp .500+ Record3-4-0Penn State

LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the Current Season.

WisconsinATS RECORDPenn StateATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games9-4-1All Games8-5-0Wisconsin
Road & Neutral Field5-1-1Home Games4-3-0Wisconsin
When Underdog0-0-1When Favored7-5-0No Edge
Conference Opp6-3-1Conference Opp5-4-0Wisconsin
Opp .500+ Record3-2-1Opp .500+ Record5-3-0Penn State

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

WisconsinO-U-P RECORDPenn StateO-U-P RECORDO-U EDGE
All Totals (O-U-P)5-4-0All Totals (O-U-P)5-3-1OVER
On Road2-1-0At Home3-2-0OVER
All Totals Last Season8-6-0All Totals Last Season7-6-0OVER
On Road Last Season4-3-0At Home Last Season3-4-0No Edge

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