Favre Propels Jets

AccuScore

Stephen Oh

AccuScore Analyst

AccuScore's NFL simulator was used to analyze how much Brett Favre's expected trade to Tampa Bay would impact that team and found that the Bucs' chances of winning the division increased by 5.5 percentage points and their chances of making the playoffs overall improved by 8.6 percentage points. This was a significant, but not massive impact

The Favre impact is much bigger on the New York Jets.

Tampa Bay was not massively improved with Favre because last year's starter, Jeff Garcia, played well in 2006 and 2007 and Favre was not a massive statistical upgrade. Favre is vastly better on paper than Chad Pennington, who managed just 10 passing touchdowns in 9 games last year and 6.8 yards per attempt, or Kellen Clemens, who had a passer rating of just 60.9 in 2007.

In 2008 simulations Brett Favre is putting up considerably better numbers than Chad Pennington:

2008 SIMULATION	QBR	CMP/ATT	%	YDS	TD	INT
Chad Pennington	82.2	18/28	64.3%	190.4	1.0	1.0
Brett Favre	87.8	19/29	65.5%	214.0	1.4	0.9

NEW YORK JETS' CHANCES IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY

The Jets scored 16.8 points per game in 2007, but with Brett Favre they are averaging 21.5 points per game in simulations. The passing game is not only producing nearly half a passing touchdown more per game, but the running game is significantly improved averaging nearly 1 rushing touchdown per game in simulations (under 0.4 in 2007).

The Jets' still have little chance of taking over the dominant Patriots for the AFC East, but their chances of making the playoffs nearly triple from just 11.8 percent to 32.5 percent – over 20 percentage point improvement.

BEFORE TRADE	WIN DIVISION	MAKE PLAYOFFS	WITH FAVRE	WIN DIVISION	MAKE PLAYOFFS
NEW ENGLAND	96.2%	98.5%	NEW ENGLAND	96.5%	99.3%
BUFFALO	2.4%	16.6%	NEW YORK	3.0%	32.5%
NEW YORK	1.3%	11.8%	BUFFALO	0.4%	7.9%
MIAMI	0.1%	0.7%	MIAMI	0.1%	1.5%

AccuScore does not expect Brett Favre to put up the kind of numbers that he did in 2007 with Green Bay. His passing yards per game decline by over 40 yards, his touchdowns decline from 28 to 22, and his passer rating is down from 95.7 to 87.8. However, even if he cannot replicate his 2007 success he still makes a huge difference for the Jets who now have a legit shot at making the playoffs.

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