NFL Analyst Picks: Week 4
By Jonathan Lee and Bart Lopez
Houston vs. Pittsburgh OVER 45 Points
The AccuScore computer line for this game is 47. Arian Foster is back for Houston which should help provide a nice one-two combo with ben Tate going up against the Steelers defense. Pittsburgh’s offensive line is a mess which could lead to a few turnovers. Still in a roundabout way this could lead to more points if Texas goes up early, and the Steelers are forced to continue to pass to catch up. This is actually a 4-star AccuScore pick as the computer record thus far for totals in games involving either of these teams is 5-1 this season and 55 percent overall on all games.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Atlanta Falcons OVER 38.5 Points
Here is another computer pick I like this week. The simulation line is 42 points which gives over a field goal cushion. The AccuScore record for totals in games with these two teeams is 4-1 this season, and as with the prior pick, all totals have been over 55 percent correct this season. Atlanta should be able to muster some big offense against the Seahawks forcing Seattle to play catch up and throw the ball. This line is the smallest of the weekend probably mostly because of the ineptness of Seattle, but a single late score could be enough to put the total over the top.
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Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
This week’s picks don’t thrill me, but this one seems like a fairly solid decision. Although these two teams have the same bad record, 0-3, I do think the Vikings are better than the Chiefs. The Chiefs played much better last week than they did the previous two, but they are still a team that doesn’t do much of anything that well. They used to have a solid running game but without Jamaal Charles their offense lacks any punch. The Vikings on the other hand are good at running and stopping the run. I don’t think the Chiefs will be able to contain Adrian Peterson, and he’ll lead the Vikings to a victory by at least three points.
Green Bay Packers (-12.5) vs. Denver Broncos
The Packers haven’t failed me so far, so I’m going to stick with them. The forecast indicates that there is a 59.8% chance that Green Bay covers the spread at home against Denver. The Broncos played better last week against the Titans than most people expected, but that doesn’t say much. Kyle Orton hasn’t been that great this year, and his main offensive weapons, Knowshon Moreno and Brandon Lloyd, are still a little banged up. On the other sideline, Aaron Rodgers has been playing at an incredibly high level with an average quarterback rating of 120.9. The Green Bay defense hasn’t played as well as it could, but it’s talented enough to handle Denver.
Buffalo Bills (-3) at Cincinnati Bengals
Before the start of the season I didn’t think I would be picking the Bills all that often. Buffalo is coming off a huge win over New England, so momentum is definitely on its side. The offense has played extremely well, ranked 11th in passing yards and 4th in rushing yards. Defense has been the Bills weakness through the first three weeks, but fortunately for them the Bengals offense isn’t that great. Cincinnati’s strength is defense. It has played very well the first three weeks, giving up only 188.3 yards in the air and 88 yards on the ground per game. However, the Bengals haven’t faced any noteworthy offenses. I’m expecting the Bills to keep rolling to 4-0 and win by a touchdown.
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