NFL Expert Picks

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BetQL's NFL Picks Against the Spread

At BetQL, we pride ourselves on delivering comprehensive and up-to-the-minute NFL picks against the spread for every single game, every week. Our commitment doesn't just stop at providing NFL expert picks from our model; we go a step further. To empower our users with deeper insights, we furnish the pro betting percentage, a crucial metric that sheds light on which side the sharp bettors—those seasoned professionals who bet for a living—are favoring.

NFL Expert Picks

At BetQL, we understand the intricacies and unpredictability of the NFL landscape, which is why we've assembled a dual-pronged approach to our NFL expert picks.

First and foremost, our dedicated staff of NFL experts dives deep into the statistics, matchups, and evolving dynamics of the game, providing their seasoned insights and predictions. Along with our human expertise is our state-of-the-art computer model, which rigorously simulates every game 10,000 times, accounting for countless variables and scenarios. This meticulous process ensures our users receive the most robust and comprehensive NFL expert picks available. By combining the intuition and experience of our experts with the precision of our advanced simulations, BetQL strives to deliver unmatched value and accuracy to all NFL enthusiasts and bettors.

NFL Expert Picks Against the Spread

Our NFL expert picks against the spread stand as a testament to our commitment to helping bettors make informed decisions. Each week, as the excitement of the games beckons, our seasoned experts meticulously analyze a plethora of data, ensuring that every variable – from player form and team dynamics to historical trends and recent performances – is taken into consideration.

How does Betting Against the Spread Work?

Suppose the Dallas Cowboys are set to play a game against the Arizona Cardinals. The sportsbook lists the following point spread:

Dallas Cowboys -4.5
Arizona Cardinals +4.5

Here's what that means:

  • The Cowboys are the favorites to win the game, as indicated by the negative number (-4.5).
  • The Cardinals are the underdogs, as denoted by the positive number (+4.5).

If you bet on the Cowboys -4.5, for your bet to be successful, the Cowboys would need to win by more than 4.5 points (i.e., by 5 points or more). So if the final score is Cowboys 28, Cardinals 20, you would win your bet because the Cowboys won by 8 points, which is more than the 4.5 point spread.

On the other hand, if you bet on the Cardinals +4.5, there are two ways you could win:

  1. If the Cardinals win the game outright (regardless of the score difference).
  2. If the Cardinals lose but by 4 points or fewer.

Using the same score example: if the final score is Cowboys 24, Cardinals 21, then even though the Cardinals lost the game, they only lost by 3 points, which is less than the 4.5 point spread. So, if you bet on the Cardinals +4.5, you would win your bet.

In essence, the point spread levels the playing field in the eyes of bettors and provides a margin of victory that the favored team must exceed for spread bets on them to pay off.

What are NFL Sharp Picks?

NFL "sharp picks" refer to the selections made by "sharp" bettors, also known as "wise guys" or "professionals." These are individuals or groups who bet on sports, often in large amounts, based on deep research, analysis, and expertise. Their betting decisions are generally driven by value and data, rather than personal biases or emotions.

What Type of NFL Picks does BetQL Offer?

BetQL offers a wide array of NFL picks to cater to different betting preferences and strategies. Here are the types of NFL picks available at BetQL:

  • Moneyline Picks: These picks focus on the outright winner of the game. It doesn't matter how much a team wins by; all that matters is which team emerges victorious.
  • Over/Under Picks: Often referred to as totals, these picks are about the combined score of both teams in a game. Bettors choose whether the total score will be over or under a specified number set by the sportsbook.
  • Computer Picks: Derived from BetQL's advanced algorithms, these picks are generated after simulating the game multiple times. It factors in various variables and data points to produce a prediction.
  • 1st Half Picks: As the name suggests, these picks revolve around the outcome of the first half of the game. It can include who leads at halftime, the total score at halftime, and other related metrics.
  • Prop Picks: Proposition bets, or "prop bets", are wagers placed on individual players or specific events within a game. This can range from predicting a player's total rushing yards to the number of touchdowns a quarterback might throw.
  • Public Betting Picks: These picks give insight into where the majority of the public money is going. It's a way to gauge the consensus view of the betting public.
    MLB Prop Picks: We update our prop picks every day with new pitching props, hitting props, and base running props. We even have NRFI and YRFI picks for those who want to get even more specific.
    MLB Computer Picks: Check out the MLB computer picks from our model to get more betting insights for the MLB playoffs .
    MLB Line Movement: See all the latest line movement for every game during the playoffs. No matter the bet type we have the line movement tracker you need to get the best value on your bets.
    MLB Over Under Picks: Find out which way our model is picking the total for every game this playoff season. Get more data, more insights, and winning picks from our MLB over under picks

With such a diverse set of tools and predictions at their disposal, users of BetQL are well-equipped to make informed betting decisions throughout the NFL season. Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just starting out, BetQL's NFL picks offer valuable insights for every game, every week.

Best NFL Picks Against the Spread Last Year

New York Giants
ATS Record: 14-5
Cover Percentage: 73.70%

  • Strong defense: The Giants had one of the best defenses in the NFL last year, ranking 7th in points allowed and 10th in yards allowed. They were particularly good at creating turnovers, forcing 27 interceptions and 17 fumbles.
  • Balanced offense: The Giants also had a balanced offense that could run the ball and pass the ball effectively. They were led by running back Saquon Barkley, who rushed for 1,003 yards and 5 touchdowns. Quarterback Daniel Jones also played well, throwing for 3,027 yards and 24 touchdowns.
  • Good coaching: The Giants were well-coached by Brian Daboll and his staff. They were able to put their players in positions to succeed and make adjustments when things weren't going their way.
  • Underdog mentality: The Giants were often underdogs last year, but they never seemed to mind. They played with a chip on their shoulder and always seemed to rise to the occasion.

As a result of these factors, the Giants were able to cover the spread in 73.7% of their games last year. This was the best ATS record in the NFL.

Detroit Lions
ATS Record: 12-5
Cover Percentage: 70.60%

  • Underdog mentality: The Lions were often underdogs last year, but they never seemed to mind. They played with a chip on their shoulder and always seemed to rise to the occasion. This led to them winning several games that they were not expected to win.
  • Good defense: The Lions had a good defense last year, ranking 13th in points allowed and 15th in yards allowed. They were particularly good at forcing turnovers, forcing 22 interceptions and 12 fumbles.
  • Jared Goff: Jared Goff played well for most of the season, throwing for 4,686 yards and 23 touchdowns. He was also relatively turnover-free, throwing only 10 interceptions.
  • Running game: The Lions had a good running game last year, led by D'Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams. They rushed for 1,733 yards and 13 touchdowns as a team.
  • Coaching: Dan Campbell and his staff did a good job of getting the most out of their players. They were able to create a positive atmosphere in the locker room and get the team to play hard every week.

Cincinnati Bengals
ATS Record: 13-6
Cover Percentage: 68.40%

  • Joe Burrow: Joe Burrow had a breakout season in 2022, throwing for 4,611 yards and 34 touchdowns. He was also relatively turnover-free, throwing only 14 interceptions.
  • Ja'Marr Chase: Ja'Marr Chase was one of the best receivers in the NFL last year, catching 81 passes for 1,455 yards and 13 touchdowns. He was a big-play threat every time he was on the field.
  • Tee Higgins: Tee Higgins was also a productive receiver for the Bengals last year, catching 74 passes for 1,091 yards and 6 touchdowns. He was a reliable target for Burrow and helped to keep defenses honest.
  • Tyler Boyd: Tyler Boyd was a third receiving option for the Bengals, but he was still productive, catching 67 passes for 828 yards and 5 touchdowns. He was a good route-runner and could make plays after the catch.
  • Defense: The Bengals' defense improved significantly in 2022, ranking 10th in points allowed and 11th in yards allowed. They were particularly good at creating turnovers, forcing 26 interceptions and 18 fumbles.
  • Coaching: Zac Taylor and his staff did a good job of getting the most out of their players. They were able to create a balanced offense and a tough defense.

Worst NFL Picks Against the Spread Last Year

Tampa Bay Bucs
ATS Record: 4-13-1
Cover Percentage: 23.5%

  • Injuries: The Buccaneers were hit hard by injuries last year, especially on their defense. Several key players, including Jason Pierre-Paul, Shaq Barrett, and Lavonte David, missed significant time. This forced the Buccaneers to rely on a lot of inexperienced players, which hurt their overall performance.
  • Passing game: The Buccaneers' passing game was not as good as it was in previous years. Tom Brady was still a productive quarterback, but he threw more interceptions than he had in a long time. The Buccaneers also lost their top two receivers, Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown, to injuries.
  • Running game: The Buccaneers' running game was also a major disappointment last year. Leonard Fournette was not as effective as he was in 2020, and the Buccaneers did not have a reliable backup. This made it difficult for them to establish a consistent running game, which hurt their offense overall.
  • Defense: The Buccaneers' defense was not as good as it was in previous years. They allowed more points and yards than they had in 2020, and they were not as good at creating turnovers. This was a major reason why the Buccaneers struggled to win close games last year.

As a result of these factors, the Buccaneers were unable to cover the spread in most of their games last year. They had a cover percentage of only 23.5%, which was the worst in the NFL.

Chicago Bears
ATS Record: 5-11-1
Cover Percentage: 31.3%

  • Inconsistent offense: The Bears' offense was inconsistent all season long. They had some games where they looked like they could score points at will, but they also had a lot of games where they struggled to move the ball. This inconsistency made it difficult for them to cover the spread.
  • Turnovers: The Bears were one of the most turnover-prone teams in the NFL last year. They had 34 turnovers, which was the most in the NFC. This gave their opponents a lot of easy points and made it difficult for the Bears to win close games.
  • Lack of a running game: The Bears' running game was also a major disappointment last year. David Montgomery was the team's leading rusher, but he only averaged 3.8 yards per carry. This made it difficult for the Bears to control the clock and keep their opponents' offense off the field.
  • Defense: The Bears' defense was not as good as it was in previous years. They allowed more points and yards than they had in 2020, and they were not as good at creating turnovers. This was a major reason why the Bears struggled to win close games last year.

As a result of these factors, the Bears were unable to cover the spread in most of their games last year. They had a cover percentage of only 31.3%, which was the second-worst in the NFL.

LA Rams
ATS Record: 6-9-2
Cover Percentage: 40%

  • Injuries: The Rams were hit hard by injuries last year, especially on their offensive line. Several key players, including Andrew Whitworth, Robert Woods, and Tyler Higbee, missed significant time. This forced the Rams to rely on a lot of inexperienced players, which hurt their overall performance.
  • Passing game: The Rams' passing game was not as good as it was in previous years. Matthew Stafford was still a productive quarterback, but he threw more interceptions than he had in a long time. The Rams also lost their top receiver, Cooper Kupp, to a knee injury for several games.
  • Running game: The Rams' running game was also a major disappointment last year. Darrell Henderson was the team's leading rusher, but he only averaged 3.6 yards per carry. This made it difficult for the Rams to establish a consistent running game, which hurt their offense overall.
  • Defense: The Rams' defense was not as good as it was in previous years. They allowed more points and yards than they had in 2021, and they were not as good at creating turnovers. This was a major reason why the Rams struggled to win close games last year.

As a result of these factors, the Rams were unable to cover the spread in most of their games last year. They had a cover percentage of only 40%, which was the third-worst in the NFL.

Best Sportsbooks to Bet the NFL Against the Spread

  1. DraftKings Sportsbook: A leader in the industry, DraftKings provides competitive odds and a user-friendly interface, combined with regular promotions and a substantial sign-up bonus.
  2. FanDuel Sportsbook: Another giant in the world of sports betting, FanDuel offers a clean betting interface, enticing promotions, and a variety of betting options.
  3. BetMGM: With a longstanding reputation in the gambling world, BetMGM brings a robust sportsbook with competitive odds and a wide array of betting markets.
  4. PointsBet: Unique in offering "points betting" where your wins (or losses) aren't fixed but vary based on the outcome, it also provides traditional fixed-odds betting and typically has a great range of NFL markets.
  5. Unibet: A well-established European bookmaker expanding its presence in the US, Unibet offers a sleek platform and a wide range of NFL betting options.

What are Strategies for Betting the NFL Against the Spread?

Betting against the spread (ATS) is one of the most common ways to wager on NFL games. Here are some strategies that bettors often employ when betting ATS:

  1. Research & Analysis: Before placing any bet, it's crucial to do your homework. This means reviewing stats, checking team rankings, looking at recent form, and understanding player matchups.
  2. Home vs. Away: Consider the home-field advantage. Some teams perform markedly better at home than on the road. Conversely, some teams may be notorious for performing well as away underdogs.
  3. Injury Reports: Always check the injury reports before placing a bet. An injury to a key player can significantly impact a team's chances of covering the spread.
  4. Public Perception: Often, the public will heavily favor a popular team, which can skew the spread. This situation can provide value for bettors who see the potential in betting on the less-popular team.
  5. Recent Form: A team's recent performances can give insights into their current form and morale. A team on a winning streak might be more likely to continue that momentum.

NFL Betting Resources from BetQL

At BetQL, we're more than just another sports betting platform – we're your comprehensive guide to mastering the intricate world of NFL betting. To that end, we've developed an extensive array of NFL Betting Resources tailored to meet the diverse needs of bettors, both novice and seasoned.

  • Underdog Picks: Everyone loves a good underdog story. At BetQL, we sift through data to identify potential underdog teams poised to defy the odds and offer unexpected value to bettors.
  • NFL DFS Picks: The realm of Daily Fantasy Sports is rapidly evolving, and with it comes the need for on-point DFS selections. Our team provides well-researched DFS picks to optimize your lineups and give you the competitive edge.
  • NFL Line Movement: In the fluid world of NFL betting, line movements can be pivotal. BetQL tracks these fluctuations in real-time, ensuring you're always aware of the latest shifts and what they signify for your betting strategies.
  • Thursday Night Football Picks: The anticipation of Thursday Night Football brings with it unique challenges and opportunities. Our experts dedicate specialized focus to these matchups, offering tailored picks to maximize your Thursday night betting success.
  • NFL Parlay Picks: Parlays can be a bettor's best friend, multiplying potential winnings. But they require precision. At BetQL, we craft carefully considered parlay picks, melding data analysis with intuition to create selections that enhance your parlay prospects.

MLB Prop Picks: We update our prop picks every day with new pitching props, hitting props, and base running props. We even have NRFI and YRFI picks for those who want to get even more specific.

MLB Computer Picks: Check out the MLB computer picks from our model to get more betting insights for the MLB playoffs .

MLB Line Movement: See all the latest line movement for every game during the playoffs. No matter the bet type we have the line movement tracker you need to get the best value on your bets.

MLB Over Under Picks: Find out which way our model is picking the total for every game this playoff season. Get more data, more insights, and winning picks from our MLB over under picks

With these resources and more, BetQL is dedicated to ensuring that every bet you place is grounded in knowledge, strategy, and the unmatched expertise of our team. Take control of your NFL betting journey with BetQL's unparalleled resources at your fingertips.

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