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AFC

The Ravens potentially saved their season with a huge win over the Broncos. They improved their playoff chances by over 20 percentage points not only because they beat a good team, but the defensive performance bodes well for them to play better the rest of the season. The Bengals were on a Bye week but dropped 18 points because the Ravens, Texans and Chargers all won and they are the Bengals’ primary playoff competitors. The Browns and Steelers chances are unchanged after Week 8. Cleveland continues to have zero percent chance.

By beating the Jets twice the Dolphins have slashed the Jets playoff chances by more than a third to just 13 percent. While the Dolphins win hurt the Jets it barely helped Miami who improved by just 2 points. The Dolphins are still just 3-4 and have a fairly tough remaining schedule that includes 2 Patriots games and the Steelers. The Dolphins can soar up the rankings if they shock the Patriots in Week 9 and beat them. Right now everything looks good for New England as they may be the only team in the division likely to finish above .500 and now have a nearly 90 percent chance of winning the division.

The Broncos lost their first game and with victories by possible Wild Card competitors (Baltimore, San Diego, Houston) their playoff chances did drop 8 points, but the Broncos are still at a very strong 87 percent chance of making the playoffs. The Chargers will definitely need to beat Denver in Denver if they hope to close the gap in the division which is currently Denver 73, San Diego 27 percent. Denver has the benefit of having 3 more games against lowly Kansas City and Oakland, but Denver also has to face Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, the Giants, and the Colts this year.

The Colts were challenged in Week 8 but they still won and have nearly a 100 percent chance of making the playoffs. The Texans improved their chances by 10 points thanks to a road win over Buffalo, but if Houston loses in Week 9 to Indianapolis expect their chances to drop by at least 5 points next week. The Texans are 5-3, but their playoff chances lag behind the 4-3 Chargers and Ravens because their odds of winning their division are so slight and they only have 2 games where they would be heavy favorites on their remaining schedule. They face the Colts twice, the Jaguars on the road, @ Miami, New England and Tennessee, a team that definitely has the talent to play spoiler in Week 11.

NFC

The Giants have gone from having an 83 percent chance of making the playoffs after Week 5 to just a 38 percent chance. Their drop-off is not just due to 3 straight losses, but also the way they lost. They are allowing a ton of points to good passing offenses. The Giants face the Chargers, Falcons, Cowboys, Eagles and Minnesota who are all teams that could put up 30+ against the defense. While the Giants fall, the Cowboys and Eagles both rise. The Eagles jumped over 26 percentage points by crushing the Giants and the Cowboys improved by 6 points with the opportunity to take the division lead by upsetting Philadelphia in Week 9.

Minnesota has a stranglehold on the NFC North and are now playing for the #1 Seed in the NFC. They are forecasted for 13 wins which is 2 more than 3rd place Philadelphia in the NFC, but still 1 behind the Saints. The Packers lost to Favre and the Vikings but still hold the big edge over Chicago for a possible Wild Card (61 to 26 percent) because they are 1-0 against Chicago and the Bears have the tougher remaining schedule. The Packers do not have to face the Vikings again while Chicago has 2 games against the Vikings, while also playing Arizona, Philadelphia, @ San Francisco and Baltimore. With just 2 ‘easy’ wins the rest of the year Chicago will be fortunate to win more than 4 of their remaining games.

The Cardinals appeared to have a top-tier running defense to go along with their prolific passing offense, but the Panthers ran all over them. Luckily for Arizona, the 49ers suffered another tough loss and the Seahawks do not appear to be any better than last season. Arizona’s playoff chances actually were unchanged despite losing a home game where they were 75 percent favorites. The Cardinals only have a 1 game lead and lost to SF at home, but they still have the 80 to 20 percent edge to win the division because they have 4 ‘easy’ wins vs 3 ‘easy’ wins for the 49ers the rest of the season. But, as the Panthers showed in Week 8 there is no such thing as an easy win and the 49ers seem to have a better chance than their 18 percent would indicate.

Carolina improved its playoff chances nearly 10 times by upsetting Arizona, but that unfortunately is an improvement of 0.1 percent up to 1 percent. The NFC South is clearly a two team race between the Saints and Falcons, but the Saints have the clear-cut edge after holding on to the Monday Night win. The Saints matched the Colts with a 99.8 percent chance of making the playoffs and Atlanta now only has a 2 percent chance of winning the division. Atlanta still is right in the thick of the Wild Card race with a 45 percent chance of making the playoffs. They may end up in a race with the NFC East teams for the final Wild Card spot.