NFL Playoff Shifts After 10 Weeks

AccuScore

Tuesday, 17 November 2009 18:07

AFC

The Bengals are at the top of this list for the second straight week with their impressive defensive performance against the Steelers. Cincinnati saw its playoff chances increase by over 15 percentage points and their chances of winning the division sky-rocket to 70 percent, up from 18 percent a week ago. The Steelers lost the Bengals but still have a 92 percent chance of making the playoffs. Besides two games vs Baltimore, the Steelers will be heavy favorites in their remaining games. The Ravens got a slight bump over a hapless Browns team but they are now a distant 3^rd in the NFC North.

The San Diego Chargers saw their chances of winning the division jump from 43 to 68 percent this week. The Broncos definitely need Kyle Orton to play in Week 11 since AccuScore only gives a Chris Simms led Broncos a 37 percent chance of beating San Diego. The winner of this game will likely go on to take the AFC West. Denver may have seen their playoff chances drop by over 25 percentage points with a loss to lowly Washington, but they still have the 6^th best chance of making the playoffs which would put them well in line for a Wild Card.

The Patriots lost to the Colts but they only saw their playoff chances drop by 4 points because the Jets lost again. Miami won, but their chances improved to by just 4.5 percentage points because they are still well behind New England in the division and the other AFC Wild Card competitors. The Jets have a paltry 3 percent chance of making the playoffs. They only have 3 ‘winnable’ games on the rest of the schedule the way they are playing. Buffalo has less than 1 percent chance of making the playoffs.

The Colts have a 99.9 percent chance of making the playoffs with their win over the Patriots. The Jaguars saw their chances jump by nearly 20 points but they did not gain ground on the Colts, they mostly took away the playoff chances of the Jets. Unfortunately for the Texans they have to play a 3-6 Titans team that is playing well enough to beat anybody. While Tennessee has just a 1 percent chance of miraculously making a playoff run they are definitely good enough to spoil the rest of the division’s chances.

AFC	WEEK 10 REVIEW		PLAYOFF	% CHANCE
TEAM	WK 10	WK 11	% DIFF	WIN DIV
CINCINNATI BENGALS	79.9%	95.6%	15.7%	70.5%
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS	7.5%	19.1%	11.5%	0.1%
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS	76.6%	85.5%	8.9%	68.4%
MIAMI DOLPHINS	9.7%	14.2%	4.5%	7.2%
BALTIMORE RAVENS	22.8%	27.0%	4.2%	1.4%
HOUSTON TEXANS	18.9%	19.0%	0.1%	0.2%
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS	99.8%	99.9%	0.1%	99.7%
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
TENNESSEE TITANS	0.9%	1.0%	0.0%	0.0%
CLEVELAND BROWNS	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
OAKLAND RAIDERS	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
BUFFALO BILLS	1.1%	0.8%	-0.3%	0.6%
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS	96.9%	92.8%	-4.2%	90.4%
PITTSBURGH STEELERS	97.7%	91.5%	-6.3%	28.1%
NEW YORK JETS	10.8%	3.1%	-7.8%	1.8%
DENVER BRONCOS	77.2%	50.7%	-26.6%	31.6%

NFC

The Green Bay Packers got a huge win over a good team and saw their chances jump 20 points. They were helped by the Bears awful loss (down to just a 6 percent chance of making the playoffs) and the Falcons loss. The Vikings are virtually locks for the division and the playoffs at a 99 percent chance of winning the division. Even if Chicago can beat Minnesota twice they could still be 1 or 2 games behind the Vikings and all they might do is open the door for Green Bay to catch the Vikings.

The Giants saw their chances improve 8 points on a Bye Week thanks to losses by the Cowboys and Eagles. Dallas is still in position to win the NFC East with a 47 percent chance, compared to 32 percent for the Eagles. The Giants may be 3^rd in the NFC East but they still have a 45 percent chance of making the playoffs which is virtually tied with Atlanta for the final playoff spot. The Giants are at home against Atlanta who will likely be without Michael Turner. The Giants season can turn around with a big win this week.

Atlanta saw their playoff chances drop over 20 points because they lost to a division rival and the injury to Michael Turner could cost them a win. Even if Turner plays, he will be playing hurt. Carolina is playing much better and are just 1 game behind the Packers, Falcons, Eagles and Giants in win-loss record. The reason why AccuScore has the Panthers well behind these teams in playoff probability is they already lost to potential Wild Card competitors, the Eagles and Cowboys, and face the Giants on the road in Week 16. The Panthers also have tough games vs the Vikings, Saints and Patriots remaining on their schedule making it unlikely they win more than 3 of their final 7.

The Cardinals should take the AFC West because they have a 2 game lead in the division and they may finally have a good running back in rookie Beanie Wells. If Wells continues to play well the Cardinals would be over 57% favorites in their re-match with the 49ers which would be the key win they need to take the division. The 49ers are only favored in 4 of their remaining games and if they finished the season with 8 wins the Cardinals need just 3 more wins to take the division.

NFC	WEEK 10 REVIEW		PLAYOFF	% CHANCE
TEAM	WK 10	WK 11	% DIFF	WIN DIV
GREEN BAY PACKERS	38.9%	58.5%	19.6%	0.5%
NEW YORK GIANTS	36.9%	44.8%	7.9%	21.5%
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES	59.0%	62.2%	3.2%	31.6%
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS	6.3%	9.4%	3.0%	4.0%
CAROLINA PANTHERS	0.7%	3.5%	2.9%	0.0%
ARIZONA CARDINALS	94.7%	97.0%	2.3%	95.9%
MINNESOTA VIKINGS	99.3%	99.8%	0.5%	99.3%
WASHINGTON REDSKINS	0.1%	0.4%	0.3%	0.2%
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	99.0%
DETROIT LIONS	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
ST. LOUIS RAMS	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS	3.3%	1.0%	-2.3%	0.1%
DALLAS COWBOYS	79.3%	72.0%	-7.3%	46.8%
CHICAGO BEARS	15.0%	6.4%	-8.6%	0.3%
ATLANTA FALCONS	66.6%	45.1%	-21.5%	1.0%

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