AccuScore provides industry leading sports simulations, game forecasts, betting predictions, and fantasy tools for the NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, NCAAF and NCAAB.

Over the past few weeks, AccuScore has begun rolling out season projections for each team in college football and the NFL. To compliment those projections, we have outlined the most profitable systems and trends from the 2008 NFL and NCAAF seasons.

AccuScore is selling this year’s “Football Package” for $450. The real value is our annual subscription for $600 with two added months totaling 425 days. The $600 annual package gives our client’s access to ATS, Totals and Money Line picks for every game for the 2008-09 NFL, NCAAF, NHL, NBA, NCAAB seasons, as well as the complete 2009 MLB season.

The NFL and College Football are THE big sports for most bettors. AccuScore maximizes profits for subscribers by not only providing the probabilities associated with major football betting lines (point spread, over/under) but also by providing simulation betting trends through the Daily Line Report.

To review 2008 and 2007 Daily Line Report Archives for the NFL and NCAA Football download the excel files here.

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MID-WEEK AND END OF WEEK RECORDS

For football betting lines move significantly and while there is no way to officially document AccuScore’s impact on lines, a high percentage of line movement is in conjunction with AccuScore’s predictions (i.e. we think our simulation lines contribute to line movement).

As a result, our point spread and over/under records are different when you compare picks made mid-week (Wednesday afternoon for NCAAF, Thursday afternoon for NFL) and at the end of the week (Saturday am for NCAAF, Sunday am for NFL). Not only do betting lines move, our simulations are updated based on weather and injury updates and therefore simulation lines can move as well.

In the NFL on all point spread and over/under picks AccuScore was more accurate based on mid-week lines (54.6%) than end of week lines (54.0%). The unit calculations are based on 110 risked for 100 profit on all bets.

The difference was even more pronounced for NCAA Football. It seems that whether it is paying customers posting lines on message boards (negating their advantage) or the fact that a number of our customers are pick-sellers who use our data to support their picks, AccuScore’s simulation lines are used for a lot of betting action throughout the week which moves a lot of betting lines.

For example, our simulation line may be -11 and the betting line may open at -10, but over the week our influence results in the line moving to -11 (resulting in no pick / a push) or even -11.5 which reverses our pick. This is why our accuracy was just 51.5% on End of Week NCAA football lines.

BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN ACCUSCORE AND VEGAS DELIVER BIG PROFITS

While we would love it if you could bet on every game and win 55% of your bets, it’s just not realistic. To help pinpoint your most solid plays we provide Winner’s Edge members with the Daily Line Report which tracks simulation trends by a variety of relevant splits.

For example, the table below shows that in the NFL when there are minimal differences between AccuScore’s simulation betting line and the Vegas betting line (end of week, mid-week), AccuScore was 50% accurate. This is what you would mathematically expect when the difference between the simulation line and the betting line is 1.5 points or less.

However, as the differences become more pronounced (2+, 4+ point differences) AccuScore’s Live Betting Prediction percentages go higher and overall accuracy increases to as high as 65.2% on Mid-Week NFL bets.

In NCAA football there is more differences between AccuScore’s simulation lines and the Vegas betting lines. In all cases (point spread, over/under, end of week vs. mid-week) you see a situation when the differences were at their largest (6.0 points or more) the accuracy was at its highest.

The good news about these football trends is it helps the Winner’s Edge subscriber pinpoint the best plays. In a single weekend you’ll have over 100 different point spread and over/under football picks you can make in the NFL and College football using AccuScore’s Winner’s Edge. The DLR and Live Betting Predictions can help identify the 7 to 12 picks that fit these criteria and hopefully you can win 55%+ and make substantial profits.

TEAM AND CONFERENCE TRENDS

While sample sizes are too small to make definitive statistical conclusions, there are trends that indicate AccuScore’s simulations more accurately forecast performance of certain teams than other teams.

For example, the Big 12 Conference last season was loaded with experienced offensive players with a long track record of performance. The more statistics players accumulate the more accurately AccuScore can simulate that player. It is not surprising to see AccuScore’s pick record on point spreads to bet the best when two Big 12 teams played (29-18, 62%). AccuScore was also over 60% on Pac 10 games. However, when two Big East teams played accuracy was under 40%.

In the NFL, AccuScore was better in 2008 in AFC match-ups. When two AFC teams played, AccuScore was 46-38, 55%, but when two NFC teams played AccuScore was just 50% accurate.

Again, these sample sizes are small, but when they emerge after the first 7 weeks of the season and generally hold up the final 7 weeks they can provide direction to make more profitable picks.

DOING YOUR HOMEWORK CAN PAY OFF

While many subscribers do not put in any more work than just checking AccuScore’s picks and making them 100% solely on our data, we do encourage our users to incorporate our data into an overall betting system.

For example, we have paying customers who are professional handicappers and have their own systems for making picks. They use AccuScore to find those situations where our system and their system are in agreement. They do not necessarily care about the simulation trends, but rather look more at the consensus between the systems. While we cannot confirm their records several of them report pick record accuracy that is higher than what we report here.