Written by Rohit Ghosh
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No. 12 Oklahoma State vs No. 10 Colorado - Valero Alamo Bowl - 6 PM PST @ Alamodome, San Antonio, TX
What to Watch For
This year's Alamo Bowl features a matchup that should be one of the more competitive bowl contests of the season. Exactly what happens Thursday night will be largely determined by which unit gets the upper hand - Colorado's standout defense as a whole or Oklahoma State's highly-underrated defensive line and pass rush.
The Buffs from Colorado were easily one of the more appealing storylines this season, at least in the Pac-12, with head coach Mike MacIntyre earning Coach of the Year award by CBS Sports. 10 wins while winning the Pac-12 South is no joke and they'll look to cap the season off with a bowl win against a familiar opponent.
Oklahoma State might need a quarter or two to adjust to Colorado's physical secondary. No All-Pac-12 selections, but expect that to only motivate an already tough unit.
The Cowboys' defense this year has flown under the radar, but keep an eye on Vincent Taylor and the defensive line this week. The Cowboys get the slight edge in sims because they - on average - force more turnovers than do the Buffaloes.
We're always interested when AccuScore sim data picks a different favorite than do Vegas odds. At the time of publication, Colorado is a 3-point favorite, listed at -145 on the money line. Oklahoma State's getting +130 on the money line and that's the value we're most intrigued by.
Whereas Vegas odds suggest about a 56-to-57 percent chance of winning for Colorado, simulation data actually suggests Oklahoma St. wins about 52 percent of games. Money line value alert!
Simulation data would have listed Oklahoma State at about -110 odds on the money line, making the +130 highly attractive.
Make sure to check out the hot-trend picks on this matchup - a three-star ATS pick and a four-star pick on the total: All of AccuScore's 2016 College Football Bowl Picks
• Oklahoma State is 4-2 against the spread (ATS) in its last six games. [Supports AccuScore sim data.]
• The total has gone UNDER in seven of Colorado's last nine games. [Supports AccuScore sim data.]
• Colorado is 4-2 ATS in its last six games vs Oklahoma St. [Goes against AccuScore sim data.]