March Madness 2018 Free Preview: Texas Tech vs Stephen F. Austin

East: Texas Tech (3) - Stephen F. Austin (14)

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The Texas Tech Red Raiders (24-9) return to the final tournament after one year. Their best achievement so far have been five trips to sweet sixteen, but last two times for Texas Tech in the tournament ended with a single loss. The last weeks before the final tournament haven’t been as good as start of the season for the Red Raiders. While they started the season with a record of 22-4, they finished it with 2-5 and only one win in Big 12 tournament. 

 

The Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (28-6) come from Southland conference that they won again few days ago. They have been frequent participants in the NCAA final tournament during last years with few notable upsets over West Virginia and VCU during the first round. It is always difficult to predict performance of the teams from smaller conferences and the Lumberjacks is not an exception as they haven’t played against many nationally recognized teams during this season.

 

Accuscore’s 10000 simulations present Texas Tech a clear favorite in this matchup. They have 72.3% chance to win Stephen F. Austin. Vegas odds -667 (87%) indicate them even bigger favorite to win this game. Based on this there is no value to place a moneyline bet for the Red Raiders. The best scorers are projected to be Keenan Evans from Texas Tech and Shannon Bogues from Stephen F. Austin.

 

PTS: Shannon Bogues 13.4, Keenan Evans 19.1

ASSISTS: Ivan Canete 2.4, Keenan Evans 3.6

REBOUNDS: TJ Holyfield 5.2, Jarrett Culver 4.9

 

Accuscore tournament simulations don’t give too much chances for the Lumberjacks to reach latter rounds in the tournament. The Texas Tech Red Raiders are a bit different story. Their chances to win the tournament are around 2.5% and when Vegas offers odds +6000 (1.6%) the win of Texas Tech has good value for any bettor. It is important to remember that 2.5% happens once in 40 times. Round by round probabilities for both teams can be seen below:

 

TEAMNAME

REGION

SEED

FINAL32

FINAL16

FINAL8

FINALFOUR

FINALTWO

CHAMP

Texas Tech

EAST

3

73.78%

44.65%

21.57%

10.96%

5.26%

2.43%

Stephen F. Austin

EAST

14

26.22%

6.80%

0.75%

0.09%

0.02%

0.00%

 

Detailed game preview please check Accuscore.