March Madness 2018 Free Preview: Arizona vs Buffalo

South: Arizona (4) - Buffalo (13)

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Arizona (27-7) enters to NCAA final tournament as the PAC-12 champion. They have lost only one game during last 9 games with a strong finnish in PAC-12 final tournament. The Wildcats are no stranger in NCAA final tournament as this is 6th time in a row. During these six years they haven’t been able to reach further than Elite eight (2014 and 2015) and their last and only NCAA championship is already over 20 years old from 1997. Deandre Ayton has been their top player with over 20 points per game and 11.5 rebounds per game during the season.

 

Buffalo (26-8) won the MAC conference tournament just few days ago. Moreover, they recorder six wins in their last six games before the NCAA final tournament. Their history in the final tournament is short. This is their 3rd appearance and those two others (2015 and 2016) ended with losses in the first game. Junior guard CJ Massinburg has been their best player so far with almost 17 points per game and 7.4 rebounds per game.

 

Accuscore has simulated this matchup 10000 times and the Arizona Wildcats has 74% probability to win this game. When comparing this number to Vegas odds -410 (80.6%) for the Wildcats win, there is no reasonable value for a moneyline bet for Arizona. Projections for individual players show Nick Perkins as top scorer for Buffalo. Other top players are predicted to be:

 

PTS: Nick Perkins 14.8, Deandre Ayton 19.7

ASSISTS: Wes Clark 4.8, Parker JacksonCartwright 4.4

REBOUNDS: CJ Massinburg 5.8, Deandre Ayton 11.6

 

So far Buffalo’s NCAA final tournaments have been quick in and out trips. Based on Accuscore simulations this year won’t be a different. Arizona has a bit better chances with 2.83% win probability. However, this doesn’t bring any value when comparing to Vegas odds +3000 to win the tournament. Odds should be at least +3500 in order to have a worthy bet. Round by round probabilities for both teams can be seen below:

 

TEAMNAME

REGION

SEED

FINAL32

FINAL16

FINAL8

FINALFOUR

FINALTWO

CHAMP

Arizona

SOUTH

4

73.86%

45.94%

21.92%

10.24%

5.69%

2.83%

Buffalo

SOUTH

13

26.14%

7.35%

0.90%

0.09%

0.01%

0.00%

 

Detailed game preview please check Accuscore.