MLB World Series Game 6 - Indians edging in

Cubs aiming to dodge another bullet in Game 6

They did it already back in Chicago and will have to do it twice more in order to win the World Series. It’s a tougher test this time around, with all of Cleveland standing behind the Tribe at their home stadium.

Chicago are sending out Jake Arrieta, who already held the Indians to only one run in game 2 while snatching a win. The hosts give a nod to Josh Tomlin, who started game 3 and shut out the Cubs in 1-0 victory.

Cubs favored - smart money on Indians, under

The oddsmakers deem the Cubs as approx. 56 to 59% favorites, but the lines have been tilting slightly towards the Indians closing to the game. The over/under line started from 7.0 but has moved towards 7.5.

In Accuscore simulations the Cubs are favorites to win, but only with 52.3% probability. The markets have been leaning towards the simulation result for some time now, but there’s still a decent 4-6% value in a home win. In addition to Indians edging in on the odds, the under seems like a valuable offer: in 10 000 Accuscore simulations, 49% of the games finished with a score line of under 7.0. With the odds as high as +112 (or 2.12) the under is a viable option as well.

GAME 6

CHC

CLE

 

Starters

Arrieta

Tomlin

 

Win %

52.3%

47.7%

 

Odds %

57.3%

42.7%