Dodgers vs Cubs - NLCS Game 3

Written by Rohit Ghosh

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The Los Angeles Dodgers absolutely needed to get out of Chicago with a split in the first two games and they did just that - led by ace Clayton Kershaw.

The series now shifts to Dodgers Stadium, with Rich Hill set to start against last year's National League Cy Young Award winner, Jake Arrieta.

The Dodgers are slight home 'dogs at the time of publication, getting +110 on the money line. The total is set at 6.5.

What do the sims say?

This is about as close a game as is possible. The split was 50-50 with the Cubs holding the most factional of edges for Game 3. Jake Arrieta projects to pitch for 6.1 innings and give up 2.2 runs on 5.2 hits. Rich Hill projects to toss 5.9 innings for 2.1 earned runs and 4.9 hits. Chicago’s relievers give the Cubs the slightest of edges, but this game is a proper coin flip according to AccuScore’s 10,000 simulations.

What can we expect from Rich Hill?

First and foremost, it's important to remember Rich Hill (12-5, 2.12) shines as a two-pitch pitcher. You either get one or the other, but Hill's made it work thanks to his curveball. That with his fastball has allowed him to make a comeback in the league and be a force for L.A. How successful he is Tuesday will be largely determined by that curveball and where it's landing in the first few innings of Game 3.

Note: Hill didn't pitch once against the Cubs in the regular season.

Arrieta projected to dominate, yet again

Arrieta - without a doubt - is one the league's finest on the mound and he'll continue with his power-heacy approach. The fastball, slider and curve - all pitched with incredible precision and power. He had one start against the Dodgers in the regular season, throwing seven shutout innings and allowing just two hits and walking four.

One factor to watch for is this Dodgers' roster has very little experience against Arrieta. Other than Adrian Gonzalez (.794 OPS in 22 plate appearances), no other player has more than 15 appearances against him.

NLCS - Betting Trends

-The Dodgers are 1-9 against the spread (ATS) in their last 10 games.
-The total has gone OVER in 8 of the Dodgers' last 12 games.
-The Dodgers are 6-1 straight up (SU) in its last 7 games at home.
-The total has gone OVER in 5 of the Dodgers' last 7 games at home.
-The Dodgers is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing the Cubs.