Backs against the wall in MLB divisional round

By Tomi Rantanen

Three and out for Texas & Boston?

Only two games into the divisional round playoffs and we have a quite likely upset in our hands. American League winning Texas Rangers have dropped the ball twice already at home against the surging Toronto Blue Jays and Indians has shown all doubters what they’re made of by beating Boston in both games at Cleveland.

Whereas the Rangers need to go and try to salvage their season in Canada, Boston at least gets to go home to Fenway to make the save. Both teams are in serious distress, as they have not looked competitive or even close to winning neither of the games.

Let’s see how the simulations judge those all-important game threes.

 

GAME 3: Texas 0 – 2 Toronto

 

GAME 3: Cleveland 2 – 0 Boston

Team

Texas Rangers

Toronto Blue Jays

 

Cleveland Indians

Boston Red Sox

Starter

Colby Lewis

Aaron Sanchez

 

Josh Tomlin

Clay Buccholz

Win %

42.8%

57.2%

 

40.8%

59.2%

Odds %

36.2%

63.8%

 

41.4%

58.6%

 

The Accuscore simulations predict Texas to pack their stuff and return to Arlington to prepare for the next season. The oddsmakers are even more certain of Toronto winning with over 60% in odds. In simulations the game is predicted quite a bit closer than that and we could see Rangers claw back one, although it will be a difficult task against the fired up Toronto team.

At Fenway the Red Sox are clear favorites in simulations, with close to 60% winning percentage which is marginally higher than odds indicate. Boston was Accuscore’s favorite to go all the way in simulations before the playoffs, but have fallen from grace with their two losses. But, if the pitching gets better and hitters find their Fenway magic, war is not yet lost.