MLB Wednesday: Analyst Free Pick

Written by Rohit Ghosh
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Baseball: Analyst's Odds Analysis

We're always interested when Vegas odds and AccuScore sim data don't match up, and we've got exactly that sort of a situation in today's Indians-Twins matchup. At the time of publication, the Twins are home underdogs, getting +150 to +155 on the money line. Most books have the total set at 9.5, with a few still at 9.

More MLB Analysis: AccuScore's Baseball Expert Picks

Betting Trends vs AccuScore Sims

All signs point to Cleveland taking this, as evidenced by the Vegas odds. Even look at some of the applicable betting trends:
- Cleveland is 4-0 straight up (SU) in their last four road games, and 4-0 in last four against right-handed pitchers.
- Minnesota is 0-4 on the other hand in their last four against a pitcher with a WHIP less than 1.15. Cleveland’s Carlos Carrasco heads into his 24th start of the season with a 3.83 ERA and a 1.125 WHIP.
- Whereas the Vegas money line odds indicate the Twins have about a 40 percent chance of winning the matchup, AccuScore sim data has the Twins winning 47 percent of the time.

AccuScore would have listed the home side at +110, suggesting quite a bit of value on the +150 listed in most books. The Twins winning Wednesday’s matchup is a three-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend.

What the data primarily indicates is the fact the sims expect a more competitive game than do Vegas odds. The Twins cover a +1.5 run spread in over 60 percent of sims.

Pick on the Total

AccuScore sims have the total set at 8, an average of 1.0-1.5 runs lower than the total set in Vegas – indicating a pick on the UNDER. As a whole, the Twins have been outscored by 50 runs this season and their bats haven’t had a lot of momentum of late.

Expecting a close game based on the AccuScore sims – and the UNDER.

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