Written by Rohit Ghosh

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Thursday Night Baseball: Cubs vs Cardinals

The St. Louis Cardinals continue to look up at the Chicago Cubs in the NL Central and this week's series just might be their last chance at closing the gap. If this continue to trend downwards, though, there's always the wild card race. St. Louis heads into the series four games behind Los Angeles for the top wild card spot and tied with Miami for the second.

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The four-game series opens Thursday with the Cards' Carlos Martinez (10-7, 3.29 ERA) going up against lefty Jon Lester (12-4, 2.93 ERA).

Martinez will look to bounce back from a disappointing performance last Saturday against the Braves when he gave up seven runs over five innings in a 13-5 loss.

Lester hasn't faced St. Louis yet this season.

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Key Player in Simulations: Anthony Rizzo



Rizzo went 1-for-4 with a single in the third inning that drove in Kris Bryant to make it 1-0 during the 3-1 win over the Angels on Wednesday. He's on the league leaders in the NL in game-winning hits, has 24 HRs, and a team-high 81 RBIs. Keep an eye on him during the series against St. Louis, his on-base percentage of .397 just might take over the spotlight.

He has a 37% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Cubs have a 68% chance of winning.

Best Bet: The UNDER in this matchup is a four-star hot trend after 10,00-plus simulations. There's some value, though, in taking the road dogs in St.Louis. They win nearly 44 percent of simulations, staying competitive enough to have a high probability at the upset.