September 14, 2018 6:55 AM CDT

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies 9/14/2018

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The Philadelphia Phillies are 43-29 at home this season and are heavy favorites to beat the Miami Marlins who are 23-48 on the road this season. The Phillies have a better than 60% chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Phillies\' starter Zach Eflin is forecasted to have a better game than Marlins\' starter Wei-Yin Chen. Zach Eflin has a 49% chance of having a Quality Start (QS) while Wei-Yin Chen has a 29% chance of a QS. If Zach Eflin has a quality start the Phillies has a 75% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 6.9 and he has a 57% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Phillies win 70%. In Wei-Yin Chen quality starts the Marlins win 52%. He has a 26% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio and if he does his team wins 52% of simulations. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the Philadelphia Phillies is Rhys Hoskins who averaged 2.33 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 40% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Phillies have a 81% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the Miami Marlins is J.T. Realmuto who averaged 1.99 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 31% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Marlins have a 45% chance of winning.

CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 6 to 8 weeks of the season. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: Miami Marlins

Miami MarlinsRECORDPhiladelphia PhilliesRECORDUNITS EDGE
Record on the Road23-48, 32% -998Record at Home43-29, 60% 495Philadelphia Phillies
VS Philadelphia Phillies7-9, 44% 21VS Miami Marlins9-7, 56% -95Miami Marlins
vs Team .500 or Better39-63, 38% -310vs Team Under .50038-31, 55% -329Miami Marlins
Record As Road Underdog22-48, 31% -1088Record As Home Favorite35-20, 64% 546Philadelphia Phillies
When Wei-Yin Chen Starts10-12, 45% 210When Zach Eflin Starts11-11, 50% 2Miami Marlins

PAST 30 DAYS: We advise incorporating these trends along with the current Season after the first 6 to 8 weeks. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: Miami Marlins

Miami MarlinsRECORDPhiladelphia PhilliesRECORDUNITS EDGE
Record on the Road3-9, 25% -353Record at Home5-10, 33% -571Miami Marlins
VS Philadelphia Phillies2-1, 67% 180VS Miami Marlins1-2, 33% -129Miami Marlins
vs Team Under .5003-5, 38% -120vs Team .500 or Better7-14, 33% -754Miami Marlins
Record As Road Underdog3-9, 25% -353Record As Home Favorite4-6, 40% -292Philadelphia Phillies
When Wei-Yin Chen Starts3-1, 75% 313When Zach Eflin Starts1-4, 20% -325Miami Marlins

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

Miami MarlinsRECORDPhiladelphia PhilliesRECORDO-U EDGE
OVER-UNDER ON ROAD44-27, 62% OverOVER-UNDER AT HOME36-35, 51% OverOVER
ROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS8-4, 67% OverROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS8-7, 53% OverOVER
ROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON43-33, 57% OverROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON39-40, 49% OverOVER
OVER-UNDER IN Wei-Yin Chen STARTS11-10, 52% OverOVER-UNDER IN Zach Eflin STARTS9-13, 41% OverN/A

ACCUSCORE ADVISOR: AccuScore simulates every game thousands of times one play at a time. We are the industry standard in sports forecasting and the only company to be paid for sports picks and predictions by the biggest sports companies in the world. Our newest product, the AccuScore Advisor, provides Side Value, Money Line and Over-Under picks for every MLB game and rates them as One, Two, Three or Four Star picks. Three and Four Star picks have delivered over +10,000 units of profit the past 2 seasons. Visit AccuScore.com to find out what AccuScore\'s Advisor recommends for this game. The following trends are AccuScore\'s RIGHT-WRONG records and units (+/-) when making picks involving these teams.

SIDE VALUE (Current Season) - Miami Marlins Road Games: 37-34, 52% +1159 Philadelphia Phillies Home Games: 32-40, 44% -1080 SIDE VALUE (PAST 30 DAYS) - Miami Marlins Road Games: 7-5, 58% +198 Philadelphia Phillies Home Games: 8-7, 53% +168

MONEY LINE (Current Season) - Miami Marlins Road Games: 48-23, 68% +462 Philadelphia Phillies Home Games: 38-34, 53% -564 MONEY LINE (PAST 30 DAYS) - Miami Marlins Road Games: 9-3, 75% +157 Philadelphia Phillies Home Games: 5-10, 33% -607

OVER-UNDER RECORD (Current Season) - Miami Marlins Road Games: 30-36, 45% -960 Philadelphia Phillies Home Games: 31-39, 44% -1190 OVER-UNDER RECORD (PAST 30 DAYS) - Miami Marlins Road Games: 3-7, 30% -470 Philadelphia Phillies Home Games: 5-10, 33% -600

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