September 13, 2017 5:10 AM CDT

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies 9/13/2017

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The Philadelphia Phillies are 28-37 at home this season and the Miami Marlins are 32-40 on the road this season. This is a close match-up with both teams having a 45 to 55 percent chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Phillies\' starter Aaron Nola is forecasted to have a better game than Marlins\' starter Dan Straily. Aaron Nola has a 42% chance of having a Quality Start (QS) while Dan Straily has a 36% chance of a QS. If Aaron Nola has a quality start the Phillies has a 68% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 4.4 and he has a 36% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Phillies win 55%. In Dan Straily quality starts the Marlins win 64%. He has a 37% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio and if he does his team wins 64% of simulations. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the Philadelphia Phillies is Rhys Hoskins who averaged 2.82 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 50% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Phillies have a 60% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the Miami Marlins is Giancarlo Stanton who averaged 2.44 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 42% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Marlins have a 63% chance of winning.

CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 6 to 8 weeks of the season. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: Miami Marlins

Miami MarlinsRECORDPhiladelphia PhilliesRECORDUNITS EDGE
Record on the Road32-40, 44% -336Record at Home28-37, 43% -623Miami Marlins
VS Philadelphia Phillies8-8, 50% -155VS Miami Marlins8-8, 50% 218Philadelphia Phillies
vs Team Under .50045-39, 54% 278vs Team .500 or Better18-47, 28% -2229Miami Marlins
Record As Road Underdog24-32, 43% -220Record As Home Favorite11-12, 48% -288Miami Marlins
When Dan Straily Starts14-15, 48% -162When Aaron Nola Starts11-13, 46% -96Philadelphia Phillies

PAST 30 DAYS: We advise incorporating these trends along with the current Season after the first 6 to 8 weeks. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: Philadelphia Phillies

Miami MarlinsRECORDPhiladelphia PhilliesRECORDUNITS EDGE
Record on the Road6-8, 43% -187Record at Home4-6, 40% -67Philadelphia Phillies
VS Philadelphia Phillies4-4, 50% -48VS Miami Marlins4-4, 50% 139Philadelphia Phillies
vs Team Under .5009-9, 50% -71vs Team Under .5008-10, 44% 91Philadelphia Phillies
Record As Road Underdog3-5, 38% -135Record As Home Favorite1-2, 33% -135EVEN
When Dan Straily Starts3-2, 60% 66When Aaron Nola Starts1-4, 20% -335Miami Marlins

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

Miami MarlinsRECORDPhiladelphia PhilliesRECORDO-U EDGE
OVER-UNDER ON ROAD37-30, 55% OverOVER-UNDER AT HOME30-33, 48% OverOVER
ROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS9-5, 64% OverROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS5-5, 50% OverOVER
ROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON45-32, 58% OverROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON33-42, 44% OverUNDER
OVER-UNDER IN Dan Straily STARTS17-9, 65% OverOVER-UNDER IN Aaron Nola STARTS11-13, 46% OverN/A

ACCUSCORE ADVISOR: AccuScore simulates every game thousands of times one play at a time. We are the industry standard in sports forecasting and the only company to be paid for sports picks and predictions by the biggest sports companies in the world. Our newest product, the AccuScore Advisor, provides Side Value, Money Line and Over-Under picks for every MLB game and rates them as One, Two, Three or Four Star picks. Three and Four Star picks have delivered over +10,000 units of profit the past 2 seasons. Visit AccuScore.com to find out what AccuScore\'s Advisor recommends for this game. The following trends are AccuScore\'s RIGHT-WRONG records and units (+/-) when making picks involving these teams.

SIDE VALUE (Current Season) - Miami Marlins Road Games: 34-38, 47% -621 Philadelphia Phillies Home Games: 28-37, 43% -648 SIDE VALUE (PAST 30 DAYS) - Miami Marlins Road Games: 4-10, 29% -749 Philadelphia Phillies Home Games: 4-6, 40% -80

MONEY LINE (Current Season) - Miami Marlins Road Games: 43-29, 60% +579 Philadelphia Phillies Home Games: 33-32, 51% -551 MONEY LINE (PAST 30 DAYS) - Miami Marlins Road Games: 7-7, 50% -186 Philadelphia Phillies Home Games: 5-5, 50% -138

OVER-UNDER RECORD (Current Season) - Miami Marlins Road Games: 24-34, 41% -1340 Philadelphia Phillies Home Games: 30-26, 54% + 140 OVER-UNDER RECORD (PAST 30 DAYS) - Miami Marlins Road Games: 5-7, 42% -270 Philadelphia Phillies Home Games: 4-5, 44% -150

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