July 11, 2018 6:44 AM CDT

Toronto Blue Jays vs Atlanta Braves 7/11/2018

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The Atlanta Braves are 23-18 at home this season and are solid favorites to beat the Toronto Blue Jays who are 18-23 on the road this season. The Braves have a better than 55% chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Braves\' starter Michael Foltynewicz is forecasted to have a better game than Blue Jays\' starter Sam Gaviglio. Michael Foltynewicz has a 47% chance of having a Quality Start (QS) while Sam Gaviglio has a 36% chance of a QS. If Michael Foltynewicz has a quality start the Braves has a 69% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 4.7 and he has a 32% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Braves win 62%. In Sam Gaviglio quality starts the Blue Jays win 60%. He has a 36% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio and if he does his team wins 60% of simulations. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the Atlanta Braves is Freddie Freeman who averaged 2.37 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 40% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Braves have a 69% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the Toronto Blue Jays is Justin Smoak who averaged 1.89 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 30% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Blue Jays have a 58% chance of winning.

CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 6 to 8 weeks of the season. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto Blue JaysRECORDAtlanta BravesRECORDUNITS EDGE
Record on the Road18-23, 44% -198Record at Home23-18, 56% 372Atlanta Braves
VS Atlanta Braves2-1, 67% 80VS Toronto Blue Jays1-2, 33% -103Toronto Blue Jays
vs Team .500 or Better21-36, 37% -1014vs Team Under .50023-16, 59% 477Atlanta Braves
Record As Road Underdog13-18, 42% -112Record As Home Favorite13-13, 50% -358Toronto Blue Jays
When Sam Gaviglio Starts5-4, 56% 121When Michael Foltynewicz Starts8-9, 47% 64Toronto Blue Jays

PAST 30 DAYS: We advise incorporating these trends along with the current Season after the first 6 to 8 weeks. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto Blue JaysRECORDAtlanta BravesRECORDUNITS EDGE
Record on the Road4-7, 36% -150Record at Home7-6, 54% -98Atlanta Braves
VS Atlanta Braves2-1, 67% 80VS Toronto Blue Jays1-2, 33% -103Toronto Blue Jays
vs Team .500 or Better4-8, 33% -278vs Team .500 or Better3-7, 30% -377Toronto Blue Jays
Record As Road Underdog4-6, 40% -50Record As Home Favorite6-6, 50% -202Toronto Blue Jays
When Sam Gaviglio Starts4-1, 80% 306When Michael Foltynewicz Starts3-1, 75% 134Toronto Blue Jays

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

Toronto Blue JaysRECORDAtlanta BravesRECORDO-U EDGE
OVER-UNDER ON ROAD23-16, 59% OverOVER-UNDER AT HOME19-19, 50% OverOVER
ROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS5-6, 45% OverROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS6-6, 50% OverUNDER
ROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON39-38, 51% OverROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON35-43, 45% OverUNDER
OVER-UNDER IN Sam Gaviglio STARTS5-4, 56% OverOVER-UNDER IN Michael Foltynewicz STARTS8-7, 53% OverN/A

ACCUSCORE ADVISOR: AccuScore simulates every game thousands of times one play at a time. We are the industry standard in sports forecasting and the only company to be paid for sports picks and predictions by the biggest sports companies in the world. Our newest product, the AccuScore Advisor, provides Side Value, Money Line and Over-Under picks for every MLB game and rates them as One, Two, Three or Four Star picks. Three and Four Star picks have delivered over +10,000 units of profit the past 2 seasons. Visit AccuScore.com to find out what AccuScore\'s Advisor recommends for this game. The following trends are AccuScore\'s RIGHT-WRONG records and units (+/-) when making picks involving these teams.

SIDE VALUE (Current Season) - Toronto Blue Jays Road Games: 16-25, 39% -819 Atlanta Braves Home Games: 21-20, 51% +164 SIDE VALUE (PAST 30 DAYS) - Toronto Blue Jays Road Games: 3-8, 27% -265 Atlanta Braves Home Games: 6-7, 46% -193

MONEY LINE (Current Season) - Toronto Blue Jays Road Games: 20-21, 49% -646 Atlanta Braves Home Games: 20-21, 49% -416 MONEY LINE (PAST 30 DAYS) - Toronto Blue Jays Road Games: 5-6, 45% -257 Atlanta Braves Home Games: 7-6, 54% -98

OVER-UNDER RECORD (Current Season) - Toronto Blue Jays Road Games: 16-17, 48% -270 Atlanta Braves Home Games: 24-14, 63% + 860 OVER-UNDER RECORD (PAST 30 DAYS) - Toronto Blue Jays Road Games: 5-4, 56% + 60 Atlanta Braves Home Games: 6-6, 50% -60

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