July 11, 2018 6:44 AM CDT

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets 7/11/2018

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The New York Mets are 16-30 at home this season and are solid favorites to beat the Philadelphia Phillies who are 21-23 on the road this season. The Mets have a better than 55% chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Mets\' starter Jacob deGrom is forecasted to have a better game than Phillies\' starter Vincent Velasquez. Jacob deGrom has a 55% chance of having a Quality Start (QS) while Vincent Velasquez has a 41% chance of a QS. If Jacob deGrom has a quality start the Mets has a 71% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 4.9 and he has a 32% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Mets win 64%. In Vincent Velasquez quality starts the Phillies win 54%. He has a 22% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio and if he does his team wins 54% of simulations. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the New York Mets is Jose Bautista who averaged 2.02 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 32% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Mets have a 71% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the Philadelphia Phillies is Carlos Santana who averaged 1.9 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 29% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Phillies have a 57% chance of winning.

CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 6 to 8 weeks of the season. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: Philadelphia Phillies

Philadelphia PhilliesRECORDNew York MetsRECORDUNITS EDGE
Record on the Road21-23, 48% -24Record at Home16-30, 35% -1646Philadelphia Phillies
VS New York Mets3-4, 43% -182VS Philadelphia Phillies4-3, 57% 87New York Mets
vs Team Under .50019-10, 66% 399vs Team .500 or Better25-40, 38% -1394Philadelphia Phillies
Record As Road Underdog12-18, 40% -255Record As Home Favorite13-16, 45% -655Philadelphia Phillies
When Vincent Velasquez Starts7-10, 41% -353When Jacob deGrom Starts7-12, 37% -664Philadelphia Phillies

PAST 30 DAYS: We advise incorporating these trends along with the current Season after the first 6 to 8 weeks. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: Philadelphia Phillies

Philadelphia PhilliesRECORDNew York MetsRECORDUNITS EDGE
Record on the Road8-4, 67% 367Record at Home3-9, 25% -652Philadelphia Phillies
VS New York Mets2-1, 67% 33VS Philadelphia Phillies1-2, 33% -102Philadelphia Phillies
vs Team Under .50013-5, 72% 627vs Team .500 or Better6-16, 27% -1019Philadelphia Phillies
Record As Road Underdog3-3, 50% 70Record As Home Favorite2-2, 50% -50Philadelphia Phillies
When Vincent Velasquez Starts2-2, 50% -21When Jacob deGrom Starts2-4, 33% -257Philadelphia Phillies

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

Philadelphia PhilliesRECORDNew York MetsRECORDO-U EDGE
OVER-UNDER ON ROAD19-22, 46% OverOVER-UNDER AT HOME18-28, 39% OverUNDER
ROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS6-5, 55% OverROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS6-6, 50% OverOVER
ROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON39-37, 51% OverROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON40-32, 56% OverUNDER
OVER-UNDER IN Vincent Velasquez STARTS9-8, 53% OverOVER-UNDER IN Jacob deGrom STARTS8-11, 42% OverN/A

ACCUSCORE ADVISOR: AccuScore simulates every game thousands of times one play at a time. We are the industry standard in sports forecasting and the only company to be paid for sports picks and predictions by the biggest sports companies in the world. Our newest product, the AccuScore Advisor, provides Side Value, Money Line and Over-Under picks for every MLB game and rates them as One, Two, Three or Four Star picks. Three and Four Star picks have delivered over +10,000 units of profit the past 2 seasons. Visit AccuScore.com to find out what AccuScore\'s Advisor recommends for this game. The following trends are AccuScore\'s RIGHT-WRONG records and units (+/-) when making picks involving these teams.

SIDE VALUE (Current Season) - Philadelphia Phillies Road Games: 22-22, 50% -37 New York Mets Home Games: 22-24, 48% -142 SIDE VALUE (PAST 30 DAYS) - Philadelphia Phillies Road Games: 5-7, 42% -176 New York Mets Home Games: 6-6, 50% -108

MONEY LINE (Current Season) - Philadelphia Phillies Road Games: 24-20, 55% +53 New York Mets Home Games: 27-19, 59% +282 MONEY LINE (PAST 30 DAYS) - Philadelphia Phillies Road Games: 5-7, 42% -300 New York Mets Home Games: 8-4, 67% +217

OVER-UNDER RECORD (Current Season) - Philadelphia Phillies Road Games: 18-23, 44% -730 New York Mets Home Games: 20-17, 54% + 130 OVER-UNDER RECORD (PAST 30 DAYS) - Philadelphia Phillies Road Games: 5-6, 45% -160 New York Mets Home Games: 5-4, 56% + 60

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