July 11, 2018 6:44 AM CDT

Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins 7/11/2018

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The Miami Marlins are 20-27 at home this season and the Milwaukee Brewers are 25-19 on the road this season. This is a close match-up with both teams having a 45 to 55 percent chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Both starters have a relatively low chance of having a quality start. Dan Straily has a 37% chance of a QS and Freddy Peralta a 37% chance. If Dan Straily has a quality start the Marlins has a 66% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 3.1 and he has a 26% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Marlins win 52%. If Freddy Peralta has a quality start the Brewers has a 63% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 3.9 and he has a 28% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Brewers win 62%. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the Miami Marlins is J.T. Realmuto who averaged 2.07 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 34% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Marlins have a 60% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the Milwaukee Brewers is Jesus Aguilar who averaged 2.36 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 41% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Brewers have a 69% chance of winning.

CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 6 to 8 weeks of the season. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee BrewersRECORDMiami MarlinsRECORDUNITS EDGE
Record on the Road25-19, 57% 671Record at Home20-27, 43% -155Milwaukee Brewers
VS Miami Marlins5-1, 83% 212VS Milwaukee Brewers1-5, 17% -376Milwaukee Brewers
vs Team Under .50030-14, 68% 1066vs Team .500 or Better27-42, 39% -79Milwaukee Brewers
Record as Road Favorite11-6, 65% 287Record as Home Underdog18-25, 42% -119Milwaukee Brewers
When Freddy Peralta Starts4-1, 80% 220When Dan Straily Starts6-7, 46% 101Milwaukee Brewers

PAST 30 DAYS: We advise incorporating these trends along with the current Season after the first 6 to 8 weeks. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: Miami Marlins

Milwaukee BrewersRECORDMiami MarlinsRECORDUNITS EDGE
Record on the Road4-4, 50% -37Record at Home9-7, 56% 451Miami Marlins
VS Miami Marlins1-1, 50% -27VS Milwaukee Brewers1-1, 50% 24Miami Marlins
vs Team .500 or Better9-7, 56% 83vs Team .500 or Better10-9, 53% 343Miami Marlins
Record as Road Favorite2-3, 40% -133Record as Home Underdog9-6, 60% 551Miami Marlins
When Freddy Peralta Starts3-1, 75% 119When Dan Straily Starts1-4, 20% -288Milwaukee Brewers

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

Milwaukee BrewersRECORDMiami MarlinsRECORDO-U EDGE
OVER-UNDER ON ROAD20-24, 45% OverOVER-UNDER AT HOME20-26, 43% OverUNDER
ROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS5-3, 62% OverROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS7-9, 44% OverN/A
ROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON32-43, 43% OverROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON41-36, 53% OverUNDER
OVER-UNDER IN Freddy Peralta STARTS3-2, 60% OverOVER-UNDER IN Dan Straily STARTS8-5, 62% OverN/A

ACCUSCORE ADVISOR: AccuScore simulates every game thousands of times one play at a time. We are the industry standard in sports forecasting and the only company to be paid for sports picks and predictions by the biggest sports companies in the world. Our newest product, the AccuScore Advisor, provides Side Value, Money Line and Over-Under picks for every MLB game and rates them as One, Two, Three or Four Star picks. Three and Four Star picks have delivered over +10,000 units of profit the past 2 seasons. Visit AccuScore.com to find out what AccuScore\'s Advisor recommends for this game. The following trends are AccuScore\'s RIGHT-WRONG records and units (+/-) when making picks involving these teams.

SIDE VALUE (Current Season) - Milwaukee Brewers Road Games: 16-28, 36% -1138 Miami Marlins Home Games: 23-24, 49% -115 SIDE VALUE (PAST 30 DAYS) - Milwaukee Brewers Road Games: 3-5, 38% +43 Miami Marlins Home Games: 9-7, 56% +411

MONEY LINE (Current Season) - Milwaukee Brewers Road Games: 25-19, 57% +76 Miami Marlins Home Games: 26-21, 55% -257 MONEY LINE (PAST 30 DAYS) - Milwaukee Brewers Road Games: 4-4, 50% +34 Miami Marlins Home Games: 7-9, 44% -290

OVER-UNDER RECORD (Current Season) - Milwaukee Brewers Road Games: 21-20, 51% -100 Miami Marlins Home Games: 23-20, 53% + 100 OVER-UNDER RECORD (PAST 30 DAYS) - Milwaukee Brewers Road Games: 2-5, 29% -350 Miami Marlins Home Games: 8-6, 57% + 140

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