April 16, 2018 3:32 PM CDT

Miami Marlins vs New York Yankees 4/16/2018

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The New York Yankees are 3-3 at home this season and are heavy favorites to beat the Miami Marlins who are 1-2 on the road this season. The Yankees have a better than 60% chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Yankees\' starter Luis Severino is forecasted to have a better game than Marlins\' starter Caleb Smith. Luis Severino has a 49% chance of having a Quality Start (QS) while Caleb Smith has a 26% chance of a QS. If Luis Severino has a quality start the Yankees has a 89% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 2.8 and he has a 24% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Yankees win 77%. In Caleb Smith quality starts the Marlins win 57%. He has a 8% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio and if he does his team wins 57% of simulations. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the New York Yankees is Aaron Judge who averaged 3.25 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 62% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Yankees have a 78% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the Miami Marlins is Justin Bour who averaged 2.27 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 39% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Marlins have a 43% chance of winning.

CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 6 to 8 weeks of the season. NEITHER TEAM HAS UNITS EDGE

Miami MarlinsRECORDNew York YankeesRECORDUNITS EDGE
Record on the Road1-2, 33% -34Record at Home3-3, 50% -141Miami Marlins
VS New York Yankees0-0 No GamesVS Miami Marlins0-0 No GamesN/A
vs Team .500 or Better4-11, 27% -439vs Team Under .5004-3, 57% -74New York Yankees
Record As Road Underdog1-2, 33% -34Record As Home Favorite3-3, 50% -141Miami Marlins
When Caleb Smith Starts1-2, 33% -6When Luis Severino Starts2-1, 67% 26New York Yankees

LAST SEASON: We advise focusing on these trends in the first month of the season. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: New York Yankees

Miami MarlinsRECORDNew York YankeesRECORDUNITS EDGE
Record on the Road34-47, 42% -733Record at Home57-30, 66% 906New York Yankees
VS New York Yankees0-0 No GamesVS Miami Marlins0-0 No GamesN/A
vs Team .500 or Better22-40, 35% -1315vs Team .500 or Better33-28, 54% 545New York Yankees
Record As Road Underdog26-37, 41% -417Record As Home Favorite52-27, 66% 674New York Yankees
When Caleb Smith Starts1-0, 100% 69When Luis Severino Starts22-13, 63% 270New York Yankees

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

Miami MarlinsRECORDNew York YankeesRECORDO-U EDGE
OVER-UNDER ON ROAD2-1, 67% OverOVER-UNDER AT HOME5-1, 83% OverOVER
ROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS2-1, 67% OverROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS5-1, 83% OverOVER
ROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON43-33, 57% OverROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON43-39, 52% OverOVER
OVER-UNDER IN Caleb Smith STARTS1-2, 33% OverOVER-UNDER IN Luis Severino STARTS2-1, 67% OverN/A

ACCUSCORE ADVISOR: AccuScore simulates every game thousands of times one play at a time. We are the industry standard in sports forecasting and the only company to be paid for sports picks and predictions by the biggest sports companies in the world. Our newest product, the AccuScore Advisor, provides Side Value, Money Line and Over-Under picks for every MLB game and rates them as One, Two, Three or Four Star picks. Three and Four Star picks have delivered over +10,000 units of profit the past 2 seasons. Visit AccuScore.com to find out what AccuScore\'s Advisor recommends for this game. The following trends are AccuScore\'s RIGHT-WRONG records and units (+/-) when making picks involving these teams.

SIDE VALUE (Current Season) - Miami Marlins Road Games: 1-2, 33% +305 New York Yankees Home Games: 4-2, 67% +394 SIDE VALUE (Last Season) - Miami Marlins Road Games: 39-42, 48% -438 New York Yankees Home Games: 42-45, 48% -269

MONEY LINE (Current Season) - Miami Marlins Road Games: 2-1, 67% +30 New York Yankees Home Games: 2-4, 33% -310 MONEY LINE (Last Season) - Miami Marlins Road Games: 49-32, 60% +722 New York Yankees Home Games: 52-35, 60% -33

OVER-UNDER RECORD (Current Season) - Miami Marlins Road Games: 1-1, 50% -10 New York Yankees Home Games: 3-0, 100% + 300 OVER-UNDER RECORD (LAST SEASON) - Miami Marlins Road Games: 27-38, 42% -1480 New York Yankees Home Games: 34-36, 49% -560

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