April 16, 2018 3:32 PM CDT

Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers 4/16/2018

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The Milwaukee Brewers are 2-5 at home this season and the Cincinnati Reds are 1-6 on the road this season. This is a close match-up with both teams having a 45 to 55 percent chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Brewers\' starter Brent Suter is forecasted to have a better game than Reds\' starter Luis Castillo. Brent Suter has a 34% chance of having a Quality Start (QS) while Luis Castillo has a 29% chance of a QS. If Brent Suter has a quality start the Brewers has a 73% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 3.1 and he has a 27% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Brewers win 59%. In Luis Castillo quality starts the Reds win 64%. He has a 36% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio and if he does his team wins 64% of simulations. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the Milwaukee Brewers is Jesus Aguilar who averaged 2.61 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 48% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Brewers have a 66% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the Cincinnati Reds is Joey Votto who averaged 2.65 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 47% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Reds have a 58% chance of winning.

CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 6 to 8 weeks of the season. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: Milwaukee Brewers

Cincinnati RedsRECORDMilwaukee BrewersRECORDUNITS EDGE
Record on the Road1-6, 14% -483Record at Home2-5, 29% -316Milwaukee Brewers
VS Milwaukee Brewers0-0 No GamesVS Cincinnati Reds0-0 No GamesN/A
vs Team .500 or Better2-10, 17% -760vs Team Under .5003-0, 100% 228Milwaukee Brewers
Record As Road Underdog1-5, 17% -383Record As Home Favorite1-1, 50% -16Milwaukee Brewers
When Luis Castillo Starts0-3, 0% -300When Brent Suter Starts1-2, 33% -117Milwaukee Brewers

LAST SEASON: We advise focusing on these trends in the first month of the season. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: Milwaukee Brewers

Cincinnati RedsRECORDMilwaukee BrewersRECORDUNITS EDGE
Record on the Road29-52, 36% -1052Record at Home44-37, 54% 294Milwaukee Brewers
VS Milwaukee Brewers8-11, 42% -213VS Cincinnati Reds11-8, 58% 103Milwaukee Brewers
vs Team .500 or Better34-60, 36% -1525vs Team Under .50049-38, 56% 845Milwaukee Brewers
Record As Road Underdog28-47, 37% -635Record As Home Favorite29-16, 64% 640Milwaukee Brewers
When Luis Castillo Starts7-7, 50% 80When Brent Suter Starts9-5, 64% 345Milwaukee Brewers

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

Cincinnati RedsRECORDMilwaukee BrewersRECORDO-U EDGE
OVER-UNDER ON ROAD3-4, 43% OverOVER-UNDER AT HOME1-4, 20% OverUNDER
ROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS3-4, 43% OverROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS1-4, 20% OverUNDER
ROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON42-34, 55% OverROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON36-39, 48% OverUNDER
OVER-UNDER IN Luis Castillo STARTS2-1, 67% OverOVER-UNDER IN Brent Suter STARTS2-1, 67% OverN/A

ACCUSCORE ADVISOR: AccuScore simulates every game thousands of times one play at a time. We are the industry standard in sports forecasting and the only company to be paid for sports picks and predictions by the biggest sports companies in the world. Our newest product, the AccuScore Advisor, provides Side Value, Money Line and Over-Under picks for every MLB game and rates them as One, Two, Three or Four Star picks. Three and Four Star picks have delivered over +10,000 units of profit the past 2 seasons. Visit AccuScore.com to find out what AccuScore\'s Advisor recommends for this game. The following trends are AccuScore\'s RIGHT-WRONG records and units (+/-) when making picks involving these teams.

SIDE VALUE (Current Season) - Cincinnati Reds Road Games: 2-5, 29% -252 Milwaukee Brewers Home Games: 1-6, 14% -494 SIDE VALUE (Last Season) - Cincinnati Reds Road Games: 30-51, 37% -946 Milwaukee Brewers Home Games: 45-36, 56% +800

MONEY LINE (Current Season) - Cincinnati Reds Road Games: 5-2, 71% +167 Milwaukee Brewers Home Games: 1-6, 14% -516 MONEY LINE (Last Season) - Cincinnati Reds Road Games: 44-37, 54% -748 Milwaukee Brewers Home Games: 49-32, 60% +879

OVER-UNDER RECORD (Current Season) - Cincinnati Reds Road Games: 3-4, 43% -140 Milwaukee Brewers Home Games: 1-4, 20% -340 OVER-UNDER RECORD (LAST SEASON) - Cincinnati Reds Road Games: 30-36, 45% -960 Milwaukee Brewers Home Games: 33-33, 50% -330

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