AccuScore
| Barry Bonds Impact |
 Stephen Oh
AccuScore Analyst
No one wants Barry Bonds despite all the on-field reasons why teams like the New Yankees or Arizona Cardinals could clearly benefit by signing him. We used the AccuScore simulation computer to evaluate what type of impact Bonds would have on each team, ignoring the off-field distraction component. BONDS TO THE BIG APPLE The Yankees signed Richie Sexson which indicates they were in the market for a power hitter, even one that barely hits .200 and has an on-base percentage that is well over 100 points lower than Bonds’ OBP. AccuScore simulated two upcoming games with Barry Bonds at DH for the Yankees and with Richie Sexson at DH for the Yankees. The games are a July 23rd match-up of the Twins’ Glen Perkins facing Mike Mussina in New York and a July 25th match-up in Boston between Joba Chamberlain and Josh Beckett.
The Yankees are clearly better with Bonds in these games. While a 2 to 3 percentage point difference may not seem like a lot, when you extrapolate that over the remainder of the season you could see Bonds helping the Yankees win 2 more games of their remaining games. Of course Bonds / Sexson are not going to play every day for the Yankees, especially when Hideki Matsui returns. Therefore, you cannot say Bonds would help the Yankees win 5 more games and the Yankees should sign him. You can say that if you are going to sign a power-hitting DH you would be far better off getting Bonds than Richie Sexson, considering Bonds’ agent says he would play for minimal salary. Despite their recent history of riding strong second halves into the playoffs, AccuScore only gives the Yankees a 6 percent chance of making the playoffs this season. This percentage is very low because the Yankees trail Tampa Bay for the wildcard by 5.5 games. Even if Tampa Bay collapses in the second half, the Yankees are not the only team that would benefit. Tampa Bay would lose games to the entire American League which includes teams like the Twins, White Sox, Blue Jays, Athletics, Rangers, and Tigers who are all ahead of, or slightly behind the Yankees. If the Yankees signed Bonds and he played most games at DH AccuScore gives the Yankees a 10 percent chance of making the playoffs. While that is not a great percentage it is definitely a move in the right direction. In this case a 4 percentage point increase is a 67% improvement. The combination of getting healthy, strong second-half pitching and signing Barry Bonds could get the Yankees back into the playoffs. BONDS IN ARIZONA? The Diamondbacks are another team that should consider Barry Bonds. Their offense is clearly struggling and they recently traded for Tony Clark which indicates they were in the market for a power hitter. AccuScore simulated two upcoming games with and without Barry Bonds. Both games are at home against top competition. The first vs. the Dodgers (Derek Lowe vs. Brandon Webb) and the second against the Cubs (Rich Harden vs. Micah Owings). Bonds has a clear positive impact on the Diamondbacks’ chances.
The Diamondbacks are in a heated battle with the Dodgers for the NL West and neither expects to be able to win the wildcard. To get into the playoffs they have to win the division. AccuScore gives the Diamondbacks a slight edge in the race 53% to 47% [obviously it doubts Colorado’s ability to rip off 20 in a row like last season]. If Bonds were on the Diamondbacks, played a significant portion of their games, and could field at least as well as he did last year in San Francisco, the Diamondbacks win the NL West 59% of the time.
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