Western Conference Round Two

Tim Williams - AccuScore Analyst
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Detroit Red Wings (1) vs Colorado Avalanche (6)

Series Analysis: This series will reunite the Red Wings and Avalanche in the playoffs for the first time since 2002. From 1996 to 2002 these two teams were the top teams in the Western Conference, winning five of seven Stanley Cups, meeting five times in the seven year span, with at least one of them making it to the Western Conference finals each season. Now the two teams will fight it out to advance to the Western Conference finals once again. Detroit dominated the regular season, winning all four games, and allowing just two goals. Colorado added several key players since the last meeting, including Peter Forsberg and Adam Foote, members of the 2001 Stanley Cup team. Jose Theodore played in just two games against Detroit this year, posting a respectable 2.53 GAA and a .923 save percentage.

Detroit has dominated the series this season thanks to solid goaltending. After Dominik Hasek started to struggle against the Predators, Detroit switched to Chris Osgood, who showed excellent play, stopping 54 of 55 shots faced. Osgood met Colorado once this season, shutting out the Avalanche in a 4-0 victory. Hasek recorded two shutouts against Colorado this season, and will hope to rebound from his poor performance in the first round if Osgood struggles. Colorado is a different team this time around, with Andrew Brunette and Wojtek Wolski both playing well lately. A big factor for the Avalanche will be how these players manage to break down Detroit’s goaltending.

Key for Detroit: The Red Wings have the luxury of two elite goaltenders, which means they will be fine as long as one of them is hot. Chris Osgood will get the first crack at Colorado after his solid play against Nashville. Osgood is performing well in simulations, averaging two or fewer goals in 90 percent of simulations. Detroit is also getting offensive production from several players, with Johan Franzen and Jiri Hudler helping guys like Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg. Franzen is one of the top goal scorers for Detroit in simulations, but if guys like Hudler continue to outperform their expectations, Detroit should have no problem in this series.

Key for Colorado: These two teams were the elite a decade ago, but Colorado doesn’t fit in to that role now. Jose Theodore is allowing three or more goals in 90 percent of simulations against the talented Detroit offense. Only three Colorado players are consistently scoring a point in more than half of simulations on offense. Colorado has an uphill battle in this contest, and will need players like Brunette and Wolski to continue to step up their game, giving support to Theodore.

AccuScore Projections: Detroit is the biggest favorite to advance in simulations, winning this series 66.1 percent of the time. These two teams were the elite in the Western Conference a decade ago, but Detroit is the only elite team in this series, and should take this in six games.

San Jose Sharks (2) vs Dallas Stars (5)

Series Analysis: The Sharks struggled against the surprising Flames, winning the series in seven games to advance to this round. Dallas had an easier time against the defending champion Anaheim Ducks, thanks to excellent play from Marty Turco in net. These teams met eight times this season, splitting the series four games a piece. Neither team has fared well at home this series, with each team going 1-3 on home ice. This could remove any home ice advantage the Sharks have coming in to this series. Both teams made upgrades at the trade deadline, with Dallas bringing in former playoff MVP Brad Richards, while San Jose added top defenseman Brian Campbell.

Campbell elevated the Sharks during the regular season, especially reviving the play of Patrick Marleau. Campbell was quiet in the first round, but Ryane Clowe stepped up with four goals and four assists, while Marleau added two goals and four assists. Brad Richards assisted on four goals, including three goals by Loui Eriksson. Mike Modano had a solid first round, and has a good history against the Sharks this season, with five goals and six assists.

Key for San Jose: Devin Setoguchi scored four goals against the Stars in the regular season, but was held to one goal in the first round. Setoguchi is scoring a goal in just over one fourth of simulations, but if he can exceed his expectations in this series it will help to break down a red hot Marty Turco. Ryane Clowe is one of the top point scorers in the playoffs, despite being the third highest point scorer in simulations. Brian Campbell and Milan Michalek are two of the top point scorers in simulations, but struggled in round one, combining for just three points. The Sharks can’t depend on Clowe playing above his expectations, so they will need Campbell and Michalek to live up to their expectations to stand a chance against Turco.

Key for Dallas: Brad Richards really elevated the level of play for Loui Eriksson in round one. Eriksson is scoring a goal in less than a fourth of simulations, and recording a point in less than half of simulations. If Eriksson can continue to out-perform his expectations playing with Richards, it will give the Stars a big advantage. Sergei Zubov is also expected to return at some point in this series. When playing, Zubov is recording an assist in over half of simulations, which will give the Dallas offense an extra boost.

AccuScore Projections: Dallas has the best chance of an upset in the second round, winning this series in 37.9 percent of simulations. The solid play of veterans Mike Modano and Brad Richards will give the Stars a good chance, but the key to this series will all come down to Marty Turco. Turco is allowing three or more goals in 90 percent of simulations. This series could go the distance, but if Turco plays like he did against the Ducks, the Stars will have a much easier time in this series, winning in seven games.

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