AccuScore’s inaugural season of National Hockey League forecasting has launched.  PRO subscribers now get over 500 additional side value, money line and over/under predictions per month as part of their subscription.  Inventory has increased over 20% but the cost is the same! 

For betting analysis AccuScore recommends employing the same types of strategies used in MLB betting – namely Side Value.  To determine Side Value we take the Money Line and translate it into a winning percentage.  For example, if Pittsburgh is a +115 underdog and Florida is a -125 favorite, the respective payoffs translates into Pittsburgh 45.6%, Florida 54.4%. 

We then compare these “Las Vegas Winning Percentages (LW% below)” to the percentage of simulations that each team won.  In this example, Pittsburgh won 42.2%, Florida 57.8%.  Because Florida’s simulation winning percentage is higher than the LW% we make Florida the Side Value prediction. 

The Money Line (ML) prediction is based on the team that wins more than 50% of simulations, regardless of Side Value.  In many cases the team with Side Value is NOT the favorite to actually win and therefore not the ML pick.  For example, say Calgary is a -168 favorite to beat Phoenix.  Calgary has an LW% of 61.8%.  In the simulation they won 57.3%.  While Calgary is favored to win, they are not the Side Value pick.  That would go to Phoenix at +158 (LW% = 38.2%, Sim % = 42.7%).

In many cases, to profit using Side Value you need to bet on teams you think will lose.  For example, as of 1/7/08 teams favored by -190 or more have covered 35 times and not covered 24 times.  If you bet on every favored team (ML pick) you would be down -824 units.  In many of these games AccuScore’s Side Value was for the underdog.  The underdogs may have covered well under 50%, but because the payoff on a 100 unit wager is high +170 or more the Side Value profit on these games is +1077.

Betting on a team you think will lose may seem counterintuitive and just plain wrong.  In short seasons like the NFL it is not advised because there are not enough games to let the “upset odds” play out.  However, in sports like NHL (1230 regular season games) and MLB (over 2,400 games) there are enough games to capitalize on this strategy. 

The Daily Line Report (available to PRO Members only) includes the following information.  An initial Upcoming Games report is posted up to 18 hours prior to game time, but it is updated as needed based on starting goalies, injuries, and other game impacting news released in the hours prior to the start of the game.  The performance and team-by-team results are updated daily after the previous night’s action has finished. 

UPCOMING GAMES: The performance numbers displayed below (SV, SV14, ML, ML14) are based on the profit/loss generated based on a 100 unit wager on every game.  In the Phoenix-Calgary example above say Phoenix wins the game.  At a +158 underdog the Side Value profit would be 158.  In the Pittsburgh-Florida example above, say the -125 favored Florida won.  The unit profit would be +80 on the 100 unit wager.  For wrong predictions a -100 loss is recorded. Over/Unders are based on a 110 unit wager and a +100 on correct predictions and -110 for wrong predictions.  The Right, Wrong records and season unit performance are broken down in detail in this report by team, game type and line type.

PERFORMANCE BY LINE TYPE:  The line type performance shows the Right (R) and Wrong (W) records based on different sportsbook odds.  Each game is designated into one of 7 categories based on the Home Team’s money line.  If the AccuScore prediction (side value, money line) is correct then an R is scored.  If it is incorrect a W is scored.  The Units +/- are displayed for the season.  These same figures are also shown for just the past 14 days as an indicator of recent performance.  The Over/Under is based on the accuracy of AccuScore’s predictions based on games where the O/U is 6 or more, 5.5, or 5 or less.

TEAM-BY-TEAM RESULTS:  AccuScore’s performance for games involving each team (road vs. away) are also shown for Side Value, Money Line and Over/Under predictions. 

This is the inaugural season and we have tracked betting performance since November 5, 2007.  No results prior to this date are included in this report.