Tim Williams - AccuScore Analyst
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The thing I hate writing the most is projection articles.  It’s not that I dislike the concept of writing them, it’s just that it is hard to find new things to say.  This series has been the same in every game that has been played.  Detroit outshoots Pittsburgh by a long shot.  Both teams are solid on the penalty kill.  Pittsburgh can’t find a way to make it through the trap defense and just looks totally out-matched.

That all changed in game five.  Pittsburgh held a lead going in to the third period, but Detroit scored two goals in the opening ten minutes of the third to take a 3-2 lead.  Pittsburgh was at the very edge of elimination, before pulling the goalie and watching Max Talbot stuff a goal in the net with 35 seconds remaining.  That was only the start.

Two overtimes passed, Detroit fought off two penalties, Pittsburgh fought off one, and the score was still tied.  Then in the third overtime Jiri Hudler was called four a double minor penalty for high sticking, and 36 seconds later Petr Sykora, having previously stated that he would score the winning goal, shot one past Chris Osgood for the win.

Aside from the victory for Pittsburgh, nothing really changed in this series.  It took Pittsburgh nearly two games worth of action to record 32 shots.  Detroit managed 58 shots.  Pittsburgh’s penalty kill unit shut down six of seven Detroit power plays, while the Penguins power play unit scored on one of five chances.  Detroit still looked unstoppable moving the puck in to the Pittsburgh zone, while the Penguins still had trouble getting up to Detroit’s zone.

The Penguins almost tripled their chances of winning this series according to AccuScore simulations.  The bad news is that they only have a 17 percent chance of winning this series.  The good news is that they have a 54.4 percent chance of winning game six at home.  The triple overtime victory, followed by a home win to force game seven would be a great way to swing the momentum in Pittsburgh’s favor for once in this series.

Pittsburgh is finally getting production from Marian Hossa and Sidney Crosby, but Evgeni Malkin is still struggling in this series, often looking fatigued, which is possibly a result of the length of this season.  AccuScore forecasts for game six have Malkin scoring a point in just 53 percent of simulations, showing that the Penguins have a chance to beat Detroit, even without Malkin’s contribution.  The big factor is the play of Marc-Andre Fleury, who is stopping over 93 percent of shots, and allowing two or fewer goals in 70 percent of simulations.  Sergei Gonchar will also play a big factor, especially serving as the quarterback of the power play unit.

Fleury is holding the Red Wings offense in check, with Henrik Zetterberg and Pavel Datsyuk being the only players scoring in more than 52 percent of simulations.  Johan Franzen is scoring a goal in a third of simulations, and could be the difference in a game with both goalies playing so well.  Chris Osgood is giving Detroit a chance, allowing two or fewer goals in 50 percent of simulations.  Osgood has the benefit of facing fewer shots in this series, and that holds true in game six simulations.

I wrote on Sunday that this series was all but over.  It would be crazy to consider the Penguins now have a good chance of winning this series, with their chances currently sitting at 17 percent according to AccuScore simulations.  That’s not to say that things are looking horrible for Pittsburgh.  They have some momentum from game five heading back home with a 54.4 percent chance of winning game six.  The Penguins’ chances look good in game six, and it is a very likely possibility that they send this game back to Detroit for game seven.  The chances for the Penguins are not impossible, but considering that they have to go back to Detroit and win again in game seven, it’s hard to say that their chances are favorable.