Tim Williams - AccuScore Analyst
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Detroit is entering the Stanley Cup finals as the favorites to win their 11th Stanley Cup in franchise history.  Not so fast Red Wings fans.  Johan Franzen, who has been the top goal scorer for the Red Wings in the playoffs, despite missing most of the Western Conference finals, has been ruled out for game one against the Penguins.  The injury could have Detroit in jeopardy of losing this series before the first puck has been dropped.

AccuScore simulated the opening game of the finals without Franzen, and found that Detroit drops two percentage points in the first game, making them a seven percentage point favorite in the opening contest. The two percentage point drop isn't much, but may be a best case scenario for the Red Wings, as the AccuScore computer has shown a tendency to under-value Franzen during his playoff hot streak.  There are two reasons why this could be the case.

First, Franzen has value due to his ability to put the puck in the net, but in the simulations he holds less value than a guy like Henrik Zetterberg who scores goals and constantly sets up other players to score.  Second, Franzen has been inconsistent this season.  He recorded just 18 points in his first 56 games, then topped that with 20 points in his final 16 games.  He then recorded just four points in the six-game opening round of the playoffs, followed by 10 points in the four-game second round.  The computer sees this in the same manner that it would see any player who is prone to hot and cold streaks, and projects Franzen's expected performance accordingly.  

With Detroit losing only two percent fewer simulations, we can assume that the original AccuScore simulations did not project the hot streak version of Franzen.  AccuScore wanted to see how much the Franzen injury affects Detroit, with the assumption that Detroit is losing the playoff version of Franzen.  In these simulations the loss of Franzen has Detroit losing over five percent more simulations, making game one a near coin flip between the Red Wings and Penguins in simulations.  When Franzen went down in the Dallas series, Detroit's goals per game average dropped over one goal per game from when Franzen was in the lineup earlier in the playoffs.  Considering Detroit's drop in production after Franzen went down, it is safe to assume that the simulations featuring the playoff version of Franzen are more accurate than the simulations that project a minimal loss with Franzen, which would put Detroit on an AccuScore Upset Watch in game one.

AccuScore currently projects Detroit to win this series in 55 percent of simulations.  The loss of Franzen puts Detroit in jeopardy of losing game one.  If Detroit were to lose game one, AccuScore simulations of the remainder of the series show that Detroit's chance of winning the series drops to 38 percent.  A game one loss would essentially give the Penguins home ice advantage, and Pittsburgh has not lost at home since February 24th.  The loss of Franzen for game one might seem minor, but in the grand scheme of things, it could cost the Red Wings the series.