AccuScore - Eastern Conference Round Two

Tim Williams - AccuScore Analyst
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Montreal Canadiens (1) vs Philadelphia Flyers (6)

Series Analysis: Both of these teams are coming in to this series off of game seven victories. The Flyers managed to upset the Capitals in overtime, while Montreal survived a Boston comeback in their series, only to shut the door. These teams have met four times this season, with Montreal winning all four contests, however, their last meeting was February 17th. Since then the Flyers have added Vaclav Prospal, who was a big contributor in round one against the Capitals. Montreal has gone to Carey Price as their main goalie since the last meeting between these teams. That shouldn’t affect things much, as Price has started three of the four games against the Flyers this season, winning all three and allowing just four goals in 102 shots.

The Canadiens offense has seen a lot of success against the Flyers, with several surprise performances. Andrei Markov has six assists in four games, while Andrei Kostitsyn has two goals and two assists. Kostitsyn was one of the top performers for Montreal in the first round, with three goals and two assists, but Markov only saw one assist. The story was different this year for the Flyers, who struggled on offense against Montreal. Mike Richards led the team with two goals and five points, and Danny Briere was second with just two points. Martin Biron also struggled in his only start against Montreal, allowing five goals with an .878 save percentage.

Key for Philadelphia: Vaclav Prospal has shown to be a big addition to the Flyers offense. Prospal and Briere combined for 20 points against former Canadiens goalie Cristobal Huet. The combo will try to break down the new Montreal starter Carey Price, who has been excellent against the Flyers this season. Jeff Carter, Kimmo Timonen and Scottie Upshall provided some solid offense against Washington, but are all scoring in less than half of simulations against Montreal. Biron allowed three or more goals in five of seven games in the first round, which means the Flyers offense is going to need guys like Carter to help out Prospal and Briere on offense.

Key for Montreal: Carey Price allowed five goals in the first four games against Boston, but fell apart in games five and six, allowing ten goals. He rebounded well in game seven with his second shutout of the season. Price is doing well in simulations, allowing two or fewer goals 70 percent of the time. The Canadiens had a lot of help coming from players like Andrei Kostitsyn in round one. Kostitsyn, Markov, and Christopher Higgins have seen success this year against the Flyers, but are scoring in less than half of simulations. Price will need these players to step up their performance to take some pressure away.

AccuScore Projections: The Flyers have the second best chance of an upset in round two, winning 36.5 percent of simulations, which makes this series an AccuScore Upset Watch. Expect this series to go seven games, with the inexperience of Carey Price going up against the hot Flyers offense being the deciding factor.

Pittsburgh Penguins (2) vs New York Rangers (5)

Series Analysis: The Penguins went 3-5 against the Rangers during the regular season, but this is a team that is clicking on all cylinders, as shown by their sweep of the Senators in the first round. Marc-Andre Fleury has been a wall since returning from injury, playing especially well in the first round. Fleury has played the Rangers twice in his return, allowing three goals in those games as the Penguins went 1-0-1. There is no questioning the offensive firepower the Penguins have. Star players Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin have both played well against the Rangers this season. Sergei Gonchar has six points on the season against the Rangers, and is a big key to the power play. The big factor for the Penguins is that anyone on the team is capable of scoring, as shown by Maxime Talbot’s three goals against New York this season.

The Rangers were a big thorn for the Devils, especially Sean Avery antagonizing Martin Brodeur. Avery, Jaromir Jagr, and Scott Gomez all stepped up to dominate the Devils in the first round, and all have shown success on the season against the Penguins. Michal Rozsival is scoring in less than half of simulations, but has three goals and seven points on the season against Pittsburgh. The Rangers will need him to continue his elevated play in this series to counter the Penguins’ offensive attack. The biggest factor for the Rangers will be the play of Henrik Lundqvist. Lundqvist allowed 10 goals in his final three games against the weak Devils offense in round one. He has strong numbers against the Penguins this season, with a 1.87 GAA, but now faces an offense that features a healthy Sidney Crosby, and seems to be performing at an unstoppable rate.

Key for Pittsburgh: Fleury’s .955 save percentage was excellent in the first round, but it also helped that the Penguins averaged four goals a game. The usual suspects, Crosby and Malkin, were the top two point scorers, but the Penguins are deep with talent, with guys like Ryan Malone, Petr Sykora, Marian Hossa, and Sergei Gonchar all doing damage in round one. Furthermore, the Penguins saw production from unexpected performers like Gary Roberts and Jarkko Ruutu. Six Penguins are consistently scoring a point in over half of simulations, but the elevated performance of guys like Maxime Talbot, Ryan Whitney, and Pascal Dupuis will make the Penguins offense that much harder to handle.

Key for New York: The obvious key for the Rangers will be the ability of Lundqvist to shut down the Penguins offense. That being said, Lundqvist will need some help on offense to match the pace of Pittsburgh. Gomez and Jagr are the only Rangers scoring a point in over half of simulations. Michal Rozsival saw success against the Penguins this year, while Martin Straka scored two goals and two assists in the regular season series. Both players are scoring a point in less than half of simulations, but the Rangers will need guys like these to step up in this series and give Lundqvist some support.

AccuScore Projections: The Penguins are winning this series in 65.5 percent of simulations. Simulations are showing Marc-Andre Fleury to continue his lights-out performance, averaging two or fewer goals in 90 percent of simulations. This performance will allow Pittsburgh to take this series in six games.

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