The Patriots are loaded at Wide Receiver.  So loaded that they can have Randy Moss break the record for receiving touchdowns and still have 14 fewer receptions than Wes Welker in the regular season.  Their fourth leading WR, Jabar Gaffney has 4 receptions and a touchdown in the playoffs while Moss has just 2 receptions. 

The Giants have plenty of talent at WR as well.  They are not as deep as the Patriots, but Plaxico Burress has 12 REC TDs this season playing injured.  Amani Toomer has 3 reception touchdowns and 15 catches in just 3 playoff games.  Steve Smith had just 8 receptions in his rookie regular season, but has emerged as a quality 3rd WR in the playoffs with 9 catches.

I looked into 3 scenarios for evaluating whether the Patriots top 3 WRs (based on reception touchdowns), Randy Moss, Wes Welker and Jabar Gaffney are significantly better than the Giants’ trio of Plaxico Burress, Amani Toomer and Steve Smith.

The baseline simulation has the Patriots winning 75%, the Giants 25%.  The first scenario has the Patriots Wide Receivers unchanged, but I altered the Giants trio so Plaxico Buress equaled Randy Moss, Amani Toomer equaled Wes Welker and Steve Smith equaled Jabar Gaffney.  In other words, Moss, Welker and Gaffney were playing for both teams.  In this simulation the Giants won 27% of simulations (+2 percentage point increase).

The next scenario reversed the situation so Plaxico Burress, Amani Toomer and Steve Smith were playing for both sides replacing Moss, Welker and Gaffney.  In this case the Patriots’ winning percentage declined by 4 percentage points (from 75% to 71%). 

The final scenario had a full swap where the Giants’ trio played for New England and the Patriots’ trio played for the Giants.  The winning percentage in this scenario was New England 71%, New York 29%.

It certainly appears that the Patriots’ trio is better than the Giants’ trio, but the difference is not monumental.  The Patriots trio is more sure-handed and on average they each seem to be worth an average of 1 percentage point over their Giants’ counterpart.  In a game as big as the Super Bowl, every percentage point counts, but the big advantage the Patriots have in the passing game is clearly at QB – Tom Brady vs. Eli Manning. 

If Burress, Toomer and Smith were playing for the Patriots there would still be a very good chance that the Patriots come out on top, while if Eli were on the Patriots and Brady on the Giants this would be a virtual 50/50 coin flip.  No wonder the Quarterbacks get the money, the endorsements, the girls, the credit, the blame, etc.