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AccuScore’s NFL simulator was used to analyze how much Brett Favre would help a variety of teams rumored to be possible Brett Favre destinations. The simulations do not expect Favre to have as much impact on other teams as one might expect simply because he would be joining a team just months before the start of the season. It obviously takes far more than 8 weeks to master a new offense. CHICAGO AND MINNESOTA – NO WAY PACKERS ALLOW THIS At this point it looks like the Packers are welcoming Favre to return as a backup. Here’s why they would NEVER allow him to sign with a division rival like Chicago or Minnesota. AccuScore has simulated every game of the 2008 Season 10,000 times to calculate the probability of each team winning their division or making the playoffs as a wildcard. AccuScore’s baseline forecast for the NFC North has the Vikings with the best chance of winning the division and making the playoffs. The Vikings strong running game and improved pass rush gives them a +7 percent edge on the defending NFC North champs, Green Bay. AccuScore does expect Green Bay to make the playoffs as a wildcard (sixth in the NFC). Even though Green Bay is forecasted for second in the division, a -7 percent deficit is minimal compared to the other divisional forecasts. However, if Favre went to Minnesota the gap widens to over 40 percent difference.
The Bears are winning
the division just 11 percent of the time in simulations and are not
expected to make the playoffs. However, if Brett Favre were playing
for the team the Bears are expected to win the NFC North.
TAMPA BAY, WASHINGTON AND ARIZONA These numbers only
confirm what the Packers’ management already knows. They could
never let Favre go to a division rival. Some other possible NFC
destinations include Tampa Bay, Washington and Arizona. Interestingly,
Tampa Bay is not seeing a significant bump with Favre starting.
Jeff Garcia was a Pro Bowl QB thanks to his highly accurate passing
and ability to minimize interceptions. Tampa’s playoff chances
only increased by 2 percentage points with Brett Favre starting. Washington’s chances of making the playoffs increase by over 10 percentage points (18% to 29%). However, the NFC East is extremely competitive with defending division champs Dallas, defending Super Bowl Champs, NY Giants, and the always dangerous Philadelphia Eagles. Even though the Redskins would be better, the chances of Brett Favre leading the team to the playoffs is unlikely. In other words, Favre probably would not want to end his career on a team finishing third in their division. The Arizona Cardinals do get a big boost in performance with Brett Favre. The upgrade from Matt Leinart is enormous and Arizona’s chances of making the playoffs nearly double from 24% in the baseline to 47% with Favre. The Cardinals would be better off with Favre and he would have a legitimate chance of competing in the playoffs. However, Green Bay would nix this possibility since a more competitive Cardinals team could cost Green Bay their spot in the playoffs. Or, if both teams make the playoffs they could find themselves facing Brett Favre which is also a situation they would want to avoid.
BALTIMORE RAVENS ARE A GOOD FIT Green Bay would be wise to focus solely on AFC Teams they do not face in the regular season to avoid Favre unless they meet in the Playoffs. Two seasons ago Steve McNair was dumped by the Titans, signed with the Ravens and despite not being nearly as good as he was at his peak the Ravens won 13 games. When injuries and horrific turnover problems ended McNair’s career the Ravens collapsed. However, when healthy the defense is still a Top 5 unit and Willis McGahee was 8th in the league in rushing. Favre may have to learn a new system, but so does everyone else in Baltimore with Brian Billick fired in the off-season. He is obviously a gigantic upgrade this season over Kyle Boller, Troy Smith and rookie Joe Flacco. If the Ravens defense and TE Todd Heap are healthy in 2008, AccuScore expects the Ravens to win 7 games with a 17 percent chance of making the playoffs. However, if Brett Favre led the team they would have a 38 percent chance of making the playoffs. While this figure is not as high as other teams with Favre, it would be good enough for the 6th highest percentage in the AFC.
AccuScore recommends the Ravens pursue Brett Favre in a trade because they have an aging team and should look at him as a last chance of getting back to the Super Bowl. Green Bay should be receptive to dealing him to Baltimore because they would only face him in the Super Bowl. Brett Favre should consider Baltimore because he could be a hero for a city that is 99.9% devoted to the Ravens during football season and unlike Green Bay, no city has been more quarterback starved than Baltimore since the team moved from Cleveland. Trackback(0)
Comments (1)
MathProf
said:
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I think that Favre for Jason Taylor of Miami would benefit both teams and perhaps your sim's would show that it is unlikely that Miami would make the playoffs even with Favre. Thanks for such an informative and thought-provoking analysis. |
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