Tom Brady probably is the last person on Earth who needs more praise, but the fact is he is the best QB in the league.  Sure he three 3 interceptions vs. the Chargers, but the team still won by 9. 

Brady was seen limping into Gisele Bundchen’s apartment with that walking boot on [NOTE: She’s got a great body, but am I alone in thinking that Bundchen’s not that hot and her accent is pretty annoying?].  No one expects Brady to be anything but 100% for the Super Bowl, but let’s just say on the opening drive Brady’s foot is hurt, he can’t move around the pocket, ends up getting sandwiched by Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora and ends up on the bench with a brused sternum and concussion.

In comes Matt Cassel and the Patriots fans are horrified, and justifiably so.

Cassel is not necessarily a bad backup QB and even though it’s not fair to evaluate him on just 39 career pass attempts the numbers from this limited sample are unimpressive (56% completion percentage, 2 TDs, 2 INTs, 4 Fumbles, 4 Sacks), especially in comparison to Brady’s numbers.  Remember in Week 7 when the Patriots were up big vs the Dolphins, Cassel came in threw 2 incompletions and an interception and Brady immediately came back in to protect the lead?  You can tell the Patriots Coaching staff doesn’t have a lot of faith in Cassel.

In simulations where Matt Cassel starts for the Patriots their simulation winning percentage dropped from 75% to just 51%.

The Patriots are an incredibly talented team across the board so they are still the slight favorites.  Laurence Maroney has been averaging well over 100 yards and 5 ypc in recent weeks and the defense has allowed 32 points in 2 playoff games.  With talented receivers Cassel averages more passing yards and touchdowns than Eli Manning, but his high interception rate, sack rate, and lost fumbles gives the Giants a number of opportunities to win this game.

Cassel averages nearly 2 turnovers per simulation (1.3 INT, 0.6 lost fumbles) while Brady averages just 1.1 turnovers (0.8 interceptions, 0.3 lost fumbles).  The Giants pass rush would cause trouble for both QBs, but Brady is definitely better at minimizing the damage.  Brady’s excellence really comes out on 3rd Down.  In simulations where Brady plays the Patriots have a 50% 3rd conversion rate while Cassel’s Patriots have just a 43% 3rd Down conversion rate.

There is only a small chance that Brady is really injured and there is an even smaller chance that he gets knocked out early in the game, but if this does happen then expect a nail-biter.